Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction, 5/1/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens

Date: Friday, May 1, 2026

Location: Bell Centre in Montreal, QC

TV: ESPN2

Odds/Point Spread: Lightning (-115) Canadiens (-105)

The Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10) welcome the Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6) at Bell Centre on Friday in Game 6 of their series. Montreal leads 3-2. The moneyline on this game has Tampa Bay at -115 and Montreal is priced at -105. The total is set at 5.5.

The Tampa Bay Lightning were on the wrong end of the scoreboard with a 3-2 defeat against the Canadiens in Game 5. The Lightning had a rough night on the offensive side of the ice in the loss. In the game, they scored on 2 out of the 40 shots they attempted. In addition, they had 3 power play opportunities but weren't able to score. Tampa Bay compiled 6 penalty minutes for this matchup.

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While playing at even strength, the Lightning have conceded 184 goals while getting 235 when they are on offense. Tampa Bay Lightning opponents have amassed 258 power play opportunities (3rd in hockey) and have earned 45 goals in those attempts. Regarding scoring goals, the Tampa Bay Lightning have earned 286 goals (4th in pro hockey) this season and have given up 229. Tampa Bay has tried 2,305 shots and has a shooting percentage of 12.4%. For the season, they have earned 106 points and their points percentage is .646. The Lightning so far have had 2,188 shots taken against them and have earned a save percentage of .895. Tampa Bay has tallied 246 power play opportunities and they have tallied 51 goals during those chances, garnering them a rate of 20.73%.

Protecting the goal for this matchup will be Andrei Vasilevskiy. Opponents have been able to score 1,467 goals against Vasilevskiy in his career and his goals against average per contest is 2.49. Vasilevskiy has been involved in 598 games throughout his pro hockey career. His save percentage is at .917 during his 28,763 mins played. He has earned an overall mark of 370-178-39 and he was named the starter in 588 games. For his career, Vasilevskiy has tallied 348 quality starts and his percentage for quality starts is .592. Vasilevskiy has had 17,589 shots taken against him and he has 16,122 total saves.

Montreal squeaked out a win in Game 5. The Canadiens tallied 3 goals of the 24 shots on goal they pursued. They had 2 power play attempts in this game but weren't able to finish one of them with a goal.

Over the course of the season, the Montreal Canadiens have 279 goals, 106 points, in addition to a points percentage of .646. They have permitted 251 goals to be scored by of a combination of 197 goals at even strength and 54 goals while they had less men on the ice. The Canadiens have 223 goals at even strength and 56 goals (7th in hockey) while on the power play. They have earned 242 power play opportunities and they have accumulated a power play rate of 23.14%. Montreal has taken 2,156 shots (24th in pro hockey) and has accumulated a shooting percentage of 12.94%, while allowing the opposition 2,283 shots. They have earned a penalty kill rate of 78.23% on the other teams 248 power play opportunities, and their save percentage is 89.0%.

On the other side of the ice you will find Jakub Dobes defending the goal. Opponents are averaging 2.75 goals per game and he has relinquished 157 goals overall. Dobes' quality start rate is 61.4% and he has made 35 quality starts in his NHL career. He has started in 57 contests and his ice time sits at 953 mins. Dobes is the owner of a career record of 36-14-7 and has played in 59 contests. He has recorded 1,470 stops out of the 1,627 shots taken, which gives him a save % of .904.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-115)

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