Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, 3/7/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026

Location: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON

TV: Sportsnet

Scotiabank Arena is the site where the Toronto Maple Leafs (27-24-11) will meet the Tampa Bay Lightning (38-17-4) on Saturday.

The Tampa Bay Lightning will look to clean up some issues after taking a 5-1 loss against the Wild in their last outing. Tampa Bay had 20 minutes in the box in this game. The Lightning offense left a lot to be desired in this loss. Furthermore, they had 3 power play opportunities but weren't able to score a goal. In the game, they finished 1 out of the 25 shots they put on net.

Concerning their scoring, the Tampa Bay Lightning have earned 206 goals (6th in the National Hockey League) for the season and have surrendered 156. For the season, they have scored 80 points and their points percentage is .678. Tampa Bay has accounted for 186 power play opportunities and they have tallied 40 goals out of those advantages, giving them a rate of 21.51%. When playing at even strength, the Lightning have allowed the opponent to score 124 goals while scoring 166 on the offensive side of the ice. Tampa Bay has tried 1,675 shots and holds a shot percentage of 12.3%. The Lightning so far have had 1,573 shots taken against them and hold a save percentage of .901. Tampa Bay Lightning opponents have recorded 188 power play opportunities (7th in hockey) and have earned 32 goals in those attempts.

The player protecting the goal in this game is Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy has played in 580 contests throughout his NHL career. He has amassed a mark of 359-172-38 and he has started in 570 games. The opposition has racked up 1,424 goals against Vasilevskiy in his pro hockey career and his goals against rate is 2.50. Vasilevskiy has seen 17,135 shots against him and he has 15,711 saves. His save percentage is at .917 during his 28,718 minutes guarding the cage. Over the course of his pro career, Vasilevskiy is sitting with 334 quality starts and his quality starts percentage sits at .586.

The last time they were on the ice, Toronto squared up with the Devils in a game where the Maple Leafs got the tie by a score of 3-3. They had 3 power play opportunities in this contest and recorded 1 out of those attempts. The Maple Leafs tallied 3 goals of the 27 shots on goal they tried.

Toronto has attempted 1,702 shots (18th in hockey) and has earned a shot percentage of 11.57%, while allowing the opposition 1,988 shots. They have accumulated a penalty kill rate of 83.44% on their oppositions 157 power play chances, and their save percentage sits at 89.3%. They have a total of 146 power play opportunities and they have earned a power play rate of 19.86%. The Maple Leafs are sitting with 168 goals at even strength and 29 goals (27th in hockey) while having more men on the ice. They have permitted 212 goals to be scored by of a combination of 186 goals at even strength and 26 goals while they were shorthanded. On the season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have accumulated 197 goals, 65 points, in addition to a points percentage of .524.

On the other side of the ice you are expected to see Anthony Stolarz defending the goal. Stolarz is sitting with a lifetime mark of 71-47-15 and has participated in 162 contests. Stolarz's quality start rate is 58.5% and he has accumulated 79 quality starts in his NHL career. He has racked up 4,069 saves out of the 4,452 shots attempted against him, giving him a save % of .914. His opponents are averaging 2.84 goals per game and he has allowed 383 goals altogether. He got the starting nod in 135 games and has accumulated 7,571 minutes.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy's Pick: Take Tampa Bay

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