Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 2/25/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL

TV: WXPX-TV

The Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21-9) are headed to Amalie Arena on Wednesday where they will try to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14-4).

The Toronto Maple Leafs will head into their next game feeling good after earning a 5-2 win against the Oilers in their previous contest . Toronto compiled 9 penalty minutes for this game. The Maple Leafs had a solid offensive outing in the win. They also had 2 power play opportunities and were able to net 2 goals. For the game, they scored on 5 of the 27 shots they attempted.

Toronto Maple Leafs opponents have amassed 141 power play opportunities (31st in the league) and have tallied 23 goals in those attempts. The Maple Leafs thus far have had 1,803 shots attempted against them and have earned a save percentage of .893. Toronto has tried 1,557 shots and holds a shooting percentage of 12.0%. At even strength, the Maple Leafs have given up 170 goals while notching 162 on offense. Toronto steps onto the ice with 133 power play opportunities and they have notched 25 goals out of those advantages, giving them a rate of 18.80%. For the season, the have a total of 63 points and their points % is .553. With regard to their scoring capabilities, the Toronto Maple Leafs have racked up 187 goals (14th in pro hockey) this year and have surrendered 193.

Protecting the goal for this matchup will be Joseph Woll. From the beginning of his pro career to now, Woll is sitting with 62 quality starts and his rate for quality starts is .620. His save percentage is at .910 for his 4,193 minutes guarding the cage. Woll has seen 3,084 shots taken against him and has accrued 2,806 total saves. The opposition has been able to score 278 goals against Woll in his professional hockey career and his average for goals against per game is 2.78. He has compiled an overall mark of 61-34-6 and he was named the starter in 100 games. Woll has participated in 103 games during his hockey career.

In their last game, Tampa Bay played the Panthers in an outing where the Lightning got the win by a mark of 6-1. They had 4 power play chances in this outing and tallied 1 out of those opportunities. The Lightning had 6 goals out of the 28 shots on goal they attempted.

Tampa Bay has tried 1,548 shots (21st in pro hockey) and has a shot percentage of 12.60%, while allowing the opposition 1,449 shots. They have recorded a penalty kill rate of 83.91% on their opponents 174 power play opportunities, and their save percentage comes in at 90.5%. They have earned 174 power play chances and they have accumulated a power play rate of 22.41%. The Lightning have earned 156 goals at even strength and 39 goals (9th in the NHL) while on the power play. They have allowed 138 goals to be scored by way of 110 goals at even strength and 28 goals while they were shorthanded. On the year, the Tampa Bay Lightning have accounted for 195 goals, 78 points, in addition to a points percentage of .709.

Across the ice you will find Andrei Vasilevskiy in the crease. Opponents are averaging 2.49 goals per contest and he has surrendered 1,413 goals altogether. Vasilevskiy's quality start percentage comes out to 58.7% and he has 333 quality starting assignments in his pro career. He got the starting nod in 567 games and has played for a total of 28,712 mins. Vasilevskiy has a lifetime mark of 358-170-38 and has played in 577 games. He has gathered 15,653 saves out of the 17,066 shots tried, giving him a save % of .917.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh's Pick: Take Toronto

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