Nick Kyrgios vs Andreas Seppi ATP Zhuhai Picks 9/25/2019
Nick Kyrgios vs Andreas Seppi
3 am EST, 25th September 2019
After a disappointing 3rd round exit at the US Open, Nick Kyrgios decided to participate in an exhibition event called Laver Cup last week. It is a 3-day team event held in Switzerland, featuring Team Europe vs Team World. Big names such as Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal were also there, helping Team Europe to win the event in the end. Kyrgios played on Day 2, pushing Roger Federer into a super tie-break, where he lost 10-7. And after that winning some points for his team in a doubles match, partnering Jack Sock vs Nadal/Tsitsipas duo. He withdrew from the scheduled matches on the last day, citing a shoulder injury, if I am not mistaken.
In the press conference afterward, a reporter asked him about the injury. Before replying with an answer, he chugged a bottle of beer. Don't think it's big deal, but it was interesting that he posted that video on his Instagram with a comment: "Mood going into Asian swing". For a guy that is known for poor effort sometimes, it is a telling sign where his mind is at. I don't think he's too concerned about his results in this period, especially in 250 event in Chengdu, after a long flight from Europe and a minor shoulder injury.
He will be playing against Andreas Seppi, who is having a miserable season. Don't remember when was the last time when he had such a poor record (14-21), going into the last quarter of the year. But effort and work ethic was never questioned when talking about Andreas. After suffering 3 losses in a row, he dropped down to the challenger level and successfully found some form there. He won a tournament in Cary, North Carolina beating Michael Mmoh in the finals. According to the records, he never played in Zhuhai before. But from what I've seen so far, the playing conditions could be similar to those in Sydney, where he was the runner-up earlier this year.
These two guys have quite a history. They played each other 4 times already and more often then not, it was a war. Both of their matches at the Australian open went to an extended 5th set. Kyrgios winning the one in 2015, while Seppi got his revenge in 2017. The other two were straight-sets wins for the Aussie, rounding up the score to 3-1.
Center court in Zhuhai is not as fast as the one in Chengdu. The ball doesn't skid through the surface and we can often see some longer rallies. That should take away a percentage of free points from Kyrgios. And if Seppi can drag him into some longer baseline exchanges, he could have some success in this match, considering the Aussie's mindset and motivation at the moment.
Betting odds & prediction
The line opened Seppi +200 and is down to +160 at the moment. This move was probably instigated by the reports of Kyrgios's injury. Combining that with questionable motivation going into this tournament, I think there is still a lot of value with the underdog at this price. Other than that, Italian also matches up well vs players like Kyrgios, because he doesn't mind the pace. He has the ability to use it to his advantage and redirect those shots, putting his opponent in uncomfortable situations. Make sure that you use the bookmaker with a favorable retirement rule for this one. Looking at the total, I am leaning over 22.5 in a match where neither player should have a big edge over his opponent.
Pick: Andreas Seppi +163
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