Karl Williams vs Lukasz Brzeski Pick, 3/11/2023 Predictions UFC Las Vegas Odds

Karl Williams vs Lukasz Brzeski

UFC Las Vegas

The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, March 11, 2023

Karl Williams will battle Lukasz Brzeski at UFC Las Vegas on Saturday, March 11, 2023. The opener has Williams priced at -200 while Brzeski is coming in at +165.

Karl Williams will be looking to add a win to his career record of 7-1-0. The 33-year-old weighs 205 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 79". Lukasz "The Bull" Brzeski stands 6'4" and will fight at 236 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 8-2-1 (1 NC). The 30-year-old has an arm span of 78". When talking about significant strikes, Karl Williams connects on 1.60 per minute while Lukasz Brzeski is landing 6.86 significant strikes per min. Williams connects on 55% of the significant strikes he attempts while Brzeski is connecting on 46%. In terms of the fighter's defense, Williams allows 0.07 significant strikes per min and "The Bull" allows 3.78. Williams also stops 91% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Brzeski thwarts 60% of the shots thrown his way.

In terms of grappling, Karl Williams is averaging more takedowns in the cage as he is able to score a takedown 3.00 times per 15 min. Williams is getting his opponent to the mat on 85% of his tries and defending 15% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Brzeski is taking his opponents down on 66% of his takedown attempts and is stopping 85% of the tries against him. Regarding subbing the opposition, Williams is less apt at going for the finish by going for 0.6 submissions per 15 min while Brzeski looks to get 1.0 submission per 15 min.

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The last time he fought, Karl Williams squared up with Jimmy Lawson and wound up getting the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Lawson ended up landing 5 of 16 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Williams walked away from this fight having landed 88 of 132 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Lawson ended up landing 1 of 12, which gave him a rate of 8%. He ended up landing 0 of 10 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Williams ended up landing 55% of his significant strikes by sticking 24 of 43. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he was 18 of 34 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Lawson and 58% of them landed by Williams were tallied at a distance.

In the last fight for Lukasz Brzeski, he faced off with Martin Buday and was defeated by way of split decision in round 3. Buday ended up connecting on 98% of his significant strikes at distance while Brzeski ended up landing 98% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Brzeski connected on 43% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 118 of 273. He connected on 49 of 182 significant strikes aimed at the head. Buday ended up connecting on 66 of 188 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up landing 50 of 169 directed at the head. In regard to total strikes thrown, Buday ended up landing 66 of 188 while Brzeski landed 124 of 280 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Raphael Assuncao enters the Octagon against Davey Grant. Assuncao will be looking to add a win to his career record of 28-9-0. The 40-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter reaches 66". Grant measures 5'8" and weighs 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 14-6-0. The 37-year-old has a reach of 69". In terms of takedowns, Raphael Assuncao takes his opponents to the canvas 1.47 times per 15 min while Davey Grant is averaging a takedown 1.60 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Assuncao connects for an average of 3.24 strikes/min and landing 41% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side we have Davey Grant, who connects on 44% of the strikes he attempts and is connecting on 4.83 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Josh Fremd is set to square up against Sedriques Dumas. Dumas will be looking to add a win to his career total of 7-0-0. The 27-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter stretches 79". Fremd measures in at 6'4" and tips the scales at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a record of 9-4-0. The 29-year-old has a reach of 76". Regarding takedowns, Sedriques Dumas is stopping 15% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 85% of his tries. Fremd is taking his opponents down on 50% of the tries he takes and curbs 26% of all takedown tries against him. With regard to striking, Dumas is absorbing 1.28 strikes per min and he deals 2.55 strikes/min. Fremd, on the other side, absorbs 2.79 strikes per min and deals 2.64 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Karl Williams (-200)

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