Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland Pick, 7/29/2023 Predictions UFC 291 Odds

Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland

UFC 291

Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, UT

Saturday, July 29, 2023

Michael Chiesa will enter the Octagon with Kevin Holland at UFC 291 on Saturday, July 29, 2023. The moneyline has Chiesa at +125 while Holland is at -145.

Michael "Maverick" Chiesa walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 18-6-0. The 35-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and stands in at 6'1". The southpaw fighter reaches 75". Kevin "Trailblazer" Holland stands in at 6'3" and weighs 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 24-9-0 (1 NC). The 30-year-old stretches 81". When talking about significant strikes, Michael Chiesa is connecting on 1.88 per minute and Kevin Holland connects on 4.12 significant strikes per min. Chiesa connects on 41% of the significant strikes he tries and Holland is landing 52%. In terms of defending in the cage, "Maverick" takes 1.67 significant strikes per minute and "Trailblazer" allows 2.98. Chiesa also curbs 54% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Holland thwarts 52% of the shots thrown.

When it comes to grappling, Michael Chiesa is the more productive wrestler as he is able to score a takedown 3.39 times per 3 rounds. Chiesa is finishing his takedown attempts on 54% of his attempts and stopping 60% of all takedown tries against him. Holland is taking his opponents down on 41% of his takedown tries and is stuffing 50% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Chiesa is the more skilled fighter by attempting 1.0 sub per 15 minutes while Holland looks to get 0.5 submissions per 3 rounds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Michael Chiesa faced Sean Brady and took a loss on the night by unanimous decision in round 3. Brady ended up landing 51 of 80 total strikes attempted in that fight. Chiesa ended the night having landed 71 of 107 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Brady ended up landing 18 of 42, which gave him a rate of 42%. He landed 8 of 31 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Chiesa landed 50% of his significant strikes by connecting on 29 of 57. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 19 of 44 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Brady and 62% of them landed by Chiesa were thrown at a distance.

In the last fight for Kevin Holland, he faced off with Santiago Ponzinibbio and got a win for the night by way of a punch to the head in round 3. Ponzinibbio ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Holland ended up connecting on 93% of his significant strikes at distance. Holland landed 33% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 66 of 197. He connected on 24 of 138 significant strikes to the head. Ponzinibbio landed 44 of 104 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up landing 12 of 58 to the head. In regard to total strikes that he threw in that fight, Ponzinibbio ended up connecting on 44 of 104 while Holland connected on 67 of 198 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts to keep an eye on

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Gabriel Bonfim takes on Trevin Giles. Bonfim walks into the Octagon holding a record of 14-0-0. The 25-year-old tips the scales at 170 lbs and measures 6'1". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 72". Giles measures in at 6'0" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 16-4-0. The 30-year-old extends his reach 74". When it comes to grappling, Gabriel Bonfim is averaging a takedown 2.98 times per 15 minutes while Trevin Giles scores a takedown 1.29 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Bonfim connects for an average of 6.95 strikes per minute and is landing 38% of the strikes that he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Trevin Giles, who tags his opponent on 54% of the strikes he has thrown and lands an average of 2.99 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Marcos Rogerio de Lima is set to battle Derrick Lewis. Lewis will be looking to add a victory to his total of 26-11-0 (1 NC). The 38-year-old tips the scales at 260 lbs and measures 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 79". Rogerio de Lima stands 6'1" and steps on the scale at 253 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 21-9-1. The 38-year-old extends his reach 75". When it comes to takedowns, Derrick Lewis thwarts 52% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is finishing his takedown attempts on 28% of the times he tries. Rogerio de Lima is finishing his takedown tries on 47% of his tries and is able to curb 59% of the takedowns his opponents try. Concerning striking, Lewis takes 2.59 strikes per minute while he is dishing out 2.54 strikes/min. Rogerio de Lima, on the contrary, is taking 2.83 strikes per minute and is dealing 3.62 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Michael Chiesa (+125)

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