Dione Barbosa vs Ernesta Kareckaite Pick, 5/4/2024 Predictions UFC 301 Odds

Dione Barbosa vs Ernesta Kareckaite

UFC 301

Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Dione Barbosa will face off against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4, 2024. The opener has Barbosa at -238 while Kareckaite is at +195.

Dione "The Witch" Barbosa steps into the cage with a mark of 6-2-0. The 31-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter reaches 66". Ernesta "Heavy-Handed" Kareckaite stands in at 5'9" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to her career record of 5-0-1. The 25-year-old reaches 71". With respect to significant strikes, Dione Barbosa is connecting on 0.87 per min and Ernesta Kareckaite is landing 12.27 significant strikes per minute. Barbosa is connecting on 50% of the significant strikes she attempts while Kareckaite lands 45%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "The Witch" takes 0.65 significant strikes per minute while "Heavy-Handed" takes 11.20. Barbosa also deflects 66% of the significant strikes her opponents throw her way and Kareckaite stops 42% of the shots thrown in her direction.

Regarding takedowns, Dione Barbosa is the more capable wrestler as she is able to score a takedown 3.27 times per 3 rds. Barbosa is getting her opponent to the mat on 100% of her tries and is defending 0% of all takedown attempts. Kareckaite is getting her opponent to the mat on 50% of her takedown tries and is stopping 100% of the attempts against her. Regarding going for the sub, Barbosa is the more skilled technician by going for 9.8 subs per 15 minutes while Kareckaite attempts 0.5 subs per 3 rounds.

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In her last appearance in the Octagon, Dione Barbosa went up against Rainn Guerrero and wound up getting the win by an armbar in round 1. Guerrero landed 8 of 14 total strikes that she let go. Barbosa finished this fight landing 17 of 21 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Guerrero landed 3 of 9, which gave her a rate of 33%. She landed 2 of 7 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Barbosa ended up landing 50% of the significant strikes she threw by landing 4 of 8. Of all the significant strikes, she was 2 of 5 to the head. 33% of the significant strikes landed by Guerrero and 100% of them landed by Barbosa were tallied at distance.

In the last bout for Ernesta Kareckaite, she battled Carli Judice and wound up getting the win by split decision in round 3. Judice ended up landing 78% of the significant strikes she tried at a distance and Kareckaite ended up landing 80% of her significant strikes at distance. Kareckaite landed 45% of her significant strikes attempted by connecting on 184 of 405. She ended up landing 136 of 339 significant strikes directed at the head. Judice ended up connecting on 168 of 294 significant strikes in that fight. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, she landed 86 of 188 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes attempted in that contest, Judice ended up landing 180 of 311 while Kareckaite connected on 208 of 440 of all the strikes she attempted.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Alexandre Pantoja fights Steve Erceg. Pantoja holds a mark of 27-5-0. The 34-year-old weighs in at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 67". Erceg comes in at 5'8" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a record of 12-1-0. The 28-year-old has a reach of 68". Concerning takedowns, Alexandre Pantoja is able to score a takedown 2.20 times per 15 min and Steve Erceg scores a takedown 1.69 times per 15 minutes. In the striking category, Pantoja is landing 4.32 strikes/minute and is landing 49% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage you've got Steve Erceg, who tags his opponent on 48% of the strikes he has tried and is connecting on 4.57 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Jose Aldo is set to enter the Octagon against Jonathan Martinez. Martinez steps into the cage holding a record of 19-4-0. The 30-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 70". Aldo stands in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career total of 31-8-0. The 37-year-old stretches 70". In the category of takedowns, Jonathan Martinez stops 69% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 41% of the times he tries. Aldo is taking his opponents to the mat on 54% of his attempts and is able to curb 91% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Martinez is taking 3.76 strikes per minute while he is dealing 4.64 strikes per minute. Aldo, on the contrary, takes 3.74 strikes/min and is dishing out 3.57 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Ernesta Kareckaite (+195)

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