Paul Craig vs Caio Borralho Pick, 5/4/2024 Predictions UFC 301 Odds

Paul Craig vs Caio Borralho

UFC 301

Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Paul Craig will battle Caio Borralho at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4, 2024. The opening line has Craig coming in at +470 while Borralho is coming in at -650.

Paul "Bearjew" Craig looks to add a victory to his career total of 17-7-1. The 36-year-old is fighting at 185 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 76". Caio "The Natural" Borralho measures in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 15-1-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old reaches 75". Regarding significant strikes, Paul Craig connects on 2.42 per min while Caio Borralho is connecting on 2.73 significant strikes per min. Craig lands 46% of the significant strikes he throws and Borralho is connecting on 58%. Regarding defending in the cage, "Bearjew" allows 2.86 significant strikes per minute and "The Natural" allows 1.98. Craig also defends against 45% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Borralho is able to deflect 60% of the shots thrown.

Regarding grappling, Paul Craig is not as effective of a grappler as he scores a takedown 1.76 times per 3 rds. Craig is taking his opponents to the canvas on 22% of the times he tries and is stuffing 37% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Borralho is scoring a takedown on 63% of his takedown attempts and defending 57% of the tries against him. When it comes to sub attempts, Craig is the more apt fighter by going for 1.6 subs per 3 rds while Borralho looks to get 0.5 subs per 15 min.

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In his last bout, Paul Craig faced Brendan Allen and wound up taking the loss via rear naked choke in round 3. Allen ended up landing 52 of 64 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Craig finished this fight landing 13 of 21 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Allen landed 32 of 43, giving him a percentage of 74%. He ended up landing 26 of 37 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Craig ended up landing 42% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 6 of 14. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 3 of 10 pointed at the head. 37% of the significant strikes connected on by Allen and 100% of them landed by Craig were done at a distance.

In the last fight for Caio Borralho, he battled Abus Magomedov and took home the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Magomedov connected on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Borralho ended up landing 98% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Borralho ended up connecting on 49% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 51 of 103. He ended up connecting on 33 of 73 significant strikes aimed at the head. Magomedov ended up landing 38 of 107 significant strikes in that contest. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up connecting on 19 of 74 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go, Magomedov ended up landing 39 of 110 and Borralho landed 70 of 126 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts on the card to keep an eye on

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Jack Shore meets Joanderson Brito. Shore steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 17-1-0. The 29-year-old is weighing in at 145 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Brito stands in at 5'8" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career record of 16-3-1. The 29-year-old stretches 72". Regarding grappling, Jack Shore takes his opponents to the mat 3.42 times per 3 rds and Joanderson Brito takes his opponents down 3.40 times per 15 minutes. Regarding striking, Shore lands an average of 3.84 strikes/minute and connecting on 58% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Joanderson Brito, who lands 51% of the strikes that he throws and lands 3.32 per minute.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Myktybek Orolbai is set to take on Elves Brener. Brener will be looking to add a win to his record of 16-3-0. The 26-year-old weighs 155 lbs and measures 5'10". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 72". Orolbai measures 5'10" and records a weight of 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 12-1-1. The 26-year-old has a wingspan of 74". Regarding wrestling, Elves Brener is able to curb 85% of his opponents' takedown tries and is finishing his takedown tries on 20% of his tries. Orolbai is finishing his takedowns on 70% of his attempts and is able to stop 0% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Brener takes 5.05 strikes/minute while he is landing 4.64 per minute. Orolbai, moreover, takes 1.52 strikes/min and dishes out 0.87 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Caio Borralho (-650)

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