Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa Pick, 09/27/2025 Predictions UFC Perth Odds
Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa
UFC Perth
RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia
Saturday, September 27, 2025
Colby Thicknesse will enter the Octagon against Josias Musasa at UFC Perth on Saturday, September 27, 2025. The opening moneyline has Thicknesse coming in at +130 while Musasa is coming in at -150.
Colby "Slickness" Thicknesse looks to add a win to his career total of 7-1-0. The 26-year-old weighs 135 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 69". Josias "The KO Wizard" Musasa measures 5'8" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 8-1-0. The 26-year-old has a reach of 74". Concerning significant strikes, Colby Thicknesse is landing 2.53 per min while Josias Musasa is connecting on 3.45 significant strikes per minute. Thicknesse is connecting on 29% of the significant strikes he throws while Musasa is landing 43%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "Slickness" absorbs 2.73 significant strikes per minute while "The KO Wizard" allows 4.60. Thicknesse also stops 48% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Musasa curbs 28% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC Perth | Colby Thicknesse | Josias Musasa |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +130 | -150 |
| Record | 7-1-0 | 8-1-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 15:00 | 9:08 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'8" |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Reach | 69" | 74" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.53 | 3.45 |
| Striking Accuracy | 29% | 43% |
In terms of grappling, Colby Thicknesse is the not as competent as a wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.70 times per 15 minutes. Thicknesse is taking his opponents to the canvas on 85% of his tries and is stuffing 50% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Musasa is finishing his takedown tries on 50% of his takedown tries and thwarting 77% of the tries against him. Regarding subbing the opposition, Thicknesse is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by going for 0.6 finishes per 15 minutes while Musasa attempts 0.8 finishes per 15 min.
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In his last bout, Colby Thicknesse fought Aleksandre Topuria and ended up losing the fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Topuria landed 65 of 110 total strikes attempted in that fight. Thicknesse finished this fight landing 40 of 131 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Topuria ended up landing 41 of 79, which means his percentage was 51%. He ended up landing 18 of 53 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Thicknesse ended up landing 29% of his significant strikes by sticking 38 of 127. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 18 of 91 pointed at the head. 85% of the significant strikes landed by Topuria and 92% of them connected on by Thicknesse were done at a distance.
In the last fight for Josias Musasa, he faced off with Carlos Vera and was on the losing end of this fight by rear naked choke in round 1. Vera ended up connecting on 100% of his significant strikes at distance while Musasa connected on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Musasa ended up connecting on 41% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 13 of 31. He landed 3 of 13 significant strikes aimed at the head. Vera connected on 16 of 24 significant strikes in that battle. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 3 of 10 aimed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go in that contest, Vera connected on 18 of 26 while Musasa ended up connecting on 13 of 31 of all the strikes he threw.
Other bouts on the card to watch out for
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Loma Lookboonmee enters the Octagon against Alexia Thainara. Lookboonmee steps into the Octagon holding a record of 10-3-0. The 29-year-old weighs in at 115 lbs and comes in at 5'1". The orthodox fighter reaches 61". Thainara stands in at 5'4" and weighs in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a mark of 12-1-0. The 29-year-old reaches 67". Regarding grappling, Loma Lookboonmee is able to score a takedown 2.03 times per 15 min while Alexia Thainara takes her opponents to the mat 3.07 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Lookboonmee tags his opponents 3.87 strikes/min and is connecting on 56% out of all the strikes she attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Alexia Thainara, who is landing 40% of the strikes she has attempted and lands an average of 5.73 per minute.
If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Dominick Reyes is set to square up in the Octagon with Carlos Ulberg. Ulberg has a career record of 13-1-0. The 34-year-old tips the scales at 205 lbs and measures 6'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 77". Reyes stands 6'4" and weighs in at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter holds a career record of 15-4-0. The 35-year-old has a wingspan of 77". In terms of wrestling, Carlos Ulberg is preventing 85% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents down on 60% of his tries. Reyes is finishing his takedown tries on 28% of his attempts and is able to defend against 82% of all takedown tries against him. Concerning striking, Ulberg is taking 4.21 strikes per minute while he is dishing out 6.77 per min. Reyes, notwithstanding, is taking 3.54 strikes per min and is connecting on 5.58 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Josias Musasa (-150)
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