Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes Pick, 05/17/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 106 Odds

Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes

UFC Vegas 106

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Elise Reed will battle Denise Gomes at UFC Vegas 106 on Saturday, May 17, 2025. The opening moneyline has Reed coming in at +425 while Gomes is coming in at -575.

Elise Reed comes into this bout holding a record of 8-4-0. The 32-year-old is fighting at 115 lbs and measures in at 5'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 63". Denise "Dee" Gomes stands 5'2" and is weighing in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a record of 10-3-0. The 25-year-old extends her reach 63". Concerning significant strikes, Elise Reed is landing 3.50 per minute while Denise Gomes lands 4.55 significant strikes per min. Reed lands 53% of the significant strikes she attempts and Gomes is connecting on 50%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, Reed absorbs 3.15 significant strikes per minute and "Dee" allows 3.11. Reed also stops 53% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her and Gomes is able to deflect 51% of the strikes thrown her way.

Concerning takedowns, Elise Reed is not as effective of a grappler as she takes her opponents to the mat 0.49 times per 3 rds. Reed is scoring a takedown on 60% of the times she tries and stopping 56% of the takedowns her opponents try. Gomes is getting her opponent to the mat on 25% of the takedowns she tries and is stopping 67% of all takedowns attempted by her opposition. Regarding going for the sub, Reed is the lesser skilled of the two fighters by trying 0.6 subs per 15 minutes while Gomes tries 0.9 subs per 3 rds.

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The last time she stepped into the Octagon, Elise Reed faced Jessica Penne and took home the victory by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Penne landed 98 of 174 of the strikes she let go in total for this contest. Reed walked away from this fight having landed 229 of 306 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Penne landed 54 of 125, which gave her a rate of 43%. She ended up landing 26 of 89 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Reed landed 62% of her significant strikes by connecting on 117 of 188. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, she was 84 of 145 aimed at the head. 81% of the significant strikes landed by Penne and 94% of them landed by Reed were tallied at distance.

In the last fight for Denise Gomes, she squared up with Karolina Kowalkiewicz and wound up taking home the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Kowalkiewicz ended up landing 84% of the significant strikes she tried at a distance while Gomes landed 72% of the significant strikes she took from distance. Gomes ended up connecting on 50% of the significant strikes she attempted by landing 73 of 144. She landed 30 of 85 significant strikes directed at the head. Kowalkiewicz landed 46 of 98 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, she connected on 16 of 57 to the head. In regard to total strikes that she let go, Kowalkiewicz ended up connecting on 61 of 115 while Gomes ended up landing 91 of 166 of the strikes she threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Tecia Pennington fights Luana Pinheiro. Pennington will be looking to add a victory to her career total of 14-7-0. The 35-year-old is fighting at 115 lbs and stands 5'1". The orthodox fighter reaches 60". Pinheiro measures 5'2" and is fighting at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to her career total of 11-4-0. The 32-year-old extends her reach 62". Regarding grappling, Tecia Pennington gets a takedown 0.57 times per 15 minutes and Luana Pinheiro takes her opponents to the canvas 1.80 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Pennington connects on 4.82 strikes/minute and is connecting on 47% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side of the cage we have Luana Pinheiro, who connects on 40% of the strikes she has attempted and connects on 3.42 per minute.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Michael Morales is set to enter the Octagon with Gilbert Burns. Burns has a record of 22-8-0. The 38-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Morales measures 6'0" and weighs in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 17-0-0. The 25-year-old has a reach of 79". In terms of grappling, Gilbert Burns is stopping 53% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is getting his opponent to the mat on 37% of his attempts. Morales is finishing his takedowns on 41% of the tries he takes and defends against 92% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Burns takes 3.57 strikes/min while he deals 3.17 strikes/minute. Morales, on the contrary, absorbs 3.42 strikes/min and lands 5.42 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Denise Gomes (-575)

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