Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz Pick, 10/11/2025 Predictions UFC Rio Odds
Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
UFC Rio
Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Julia Polastri will take on Karolina Kowalkiewicz at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The opening odds have Polastri priced at -450 while Kowalkiewicz is at +350.
Julia "Psycho" Polastri looks to add a victory to her career record of 13-5-0. The 27-year-old steps on the scale at 115 lbs and measures in at 5'2". The orthodox fighter reaches 63". Karolina Kowalkiewicz measures 5'3" and is weighing in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to her record of 16-9-0. The 39-year-old extends her reach 64". Regarding significant strikes, Julia Polastri connects on 5.62 per min while Karolina Kowalkiewicz connects on 5.54 significant strikes per minute. Polastri is connecting on 55% of the significant strikes she tries and Kowalkiewicz is connecting on 43%. In terms of defending in the cage, "Psycho" absorbs 5.37 significant strikes per min and Kowalkiewicz takes 5.51. Polastri also defends 56% of the significant strikes her opponents attempt and Kowalkiewicz is able to thwart 57% of the strikes thrown her way.
| UFC Rio | Julia Polastri | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -450 | +350 |
| Record | 13-5-0 | 16-9-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:49 | 13:15 |
| Height | 5'2" | 5'3" |
| Weight | 115 lbs | 115 lbs |
| Reach | 63" | 64" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.62 | 5.54 |
| Striking Accuracy | 55% | 43% |
In terms of wrestling, Julia Polastri is the more competent wrestler as she takes her opponents to the canvas 0.87 times per 15 min. Polastri is finishing her takedown attempts on 80% of the times she tries and stopping 58% of all takedown attempts. Kowalkiewicz is taking her opponents to the canvas on 22% of the takedowns she tries and thwarting 74% of the attempts against her. When it comes to subbing the opposition, Polastri is the more experienced submission fighter by attempting 0.4 submissions per 15 minutes while Kowalkiewicz looks to get 0.2 submissions per 3 rounds.
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The last time she fought, Julia Polastri faced Loopy Godinez and was defeated by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Godinez landed 114 of 184 total strikes that she let go. Polastri ended the night having landed 117 of 186 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Godinez landed 84 of 150, which gave her a rate of 56%. She landed 71 of 135 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Polastri landed 57% of her significant strikes by connecting on 87 of 151. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, she was 58 of 112 to the head. 89% of the significant strikes landed by Godinez and 89% of them connected on by Polastri were done at distance.
In the last fight for Karolina Kowalkiewicz, she battled Denise Gomes and was defeated via unanimous decision in round 3. Gomes ended up landing 72% of the significant strikes she attempted at distance while Kowalkiewicz connected on 84% of her significant strikes at distance. Kowalkiewicz connected on 46% of her significant strikes attempted by connecting on 46 of 98. She connected on 16 of 57 significant strikes aimed at the head. Gomes landed 73 of 144 significant strikes in that contest. Of those significant strikes, she landed 30 of 85 directed at the head. Discussing total strikes that she let go in that contest, Gomes landed 91 of 166 and Kowalkiewicz landed 61 of 115 total strikes.
Other bouts on the card to watch
Another fight to keep an eye on is when Charles Oliveira enters the Octagon with Mateusz Gamrot. Oliveira steps into the Octagon with a record of 35-11-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and measures 5'10". The orthodox fighter stretches 74". Gamrot comes in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 25-3-0 (1 NC). The 34-year-old stretches 70". When it comes to wrestling, Charles Oliveira gets his opposition to the mat 2.23 times per 15 minutes and Mateusz Gamrot takes his opponents to the mat 5.33 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Oliveira connects on 3.41 strikes/min and is connecting on 55% of the strikes that he throws. The other guy in this fight is Mateusz Gamrot, who is landing 51% of the strikes he has tried and is landing 3.35 per min.
Another bout to watch is when Montel Jackson is set to enter the Octagon against Deiveson Figueiredo. Figueiredo comes into this fight with a mark of 24-5-1. The 37-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and measures 5'5". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 68". Jackson stands in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his career record of 15-2-0. The 33-year-old extends his reach 75". When it comes to takedowns, Deiveson Figueiredo is able to defend against 58% of the takedowns his opponents try and is scoring a takedown on 35% of his tries. Jackson is finishing his takedown tries on 62% of his tries and curbs 68% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With reference to striking, Figueiredo absorbs 3.64 strikes per minute while he deals 2.82 per min. Jackson, on the other hand, is taking 1.39 strikes per minute and is dishing out 3.22 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Julia Polastri (-450)
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