Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales Pick, 11/08/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 111 Odds
Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales
UFC Vegas 111
UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, November 8, 2025
Matt Schnell will take on Joseph Morales at UFC Vegas 111 on Saturday, November 8, 2025. The moneyline has Schnell at +230 while Morales is coming in at -270.
Matt "Danger" Schnell will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 17-9-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old weighs 125 lbs and stands in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 70". Joseph "Bopo" Morales stands 5'6" and is weighing in at 125 lbs. The switch fighter comes into this fight with a record of 14-2-0. The 31-year-old reaches 69". Concerning significant strikes, Matt Schnell connects on 4.13 per min and Joseph Morales is connecting on 2.02 significant strikes per min. Schnell is connecting on 40% of the significant strikes he tries while Morales is connecting on 40%. Concerning their defense in the cage, "Danger" allows 4.17 significant strikes per min while "Bopo" takes 2.11. Schnell also stops 55% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Morales is able to stop 57% of the shots thrown in his direction.
| UFC Vegas 111 | Matt Schnell | Joseph Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +230 | -270 |
| Record | 17-9-0 (1 NC) | 14-2-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 8:06 | 9:09 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'6" |
| Weight | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| Reach | 70" | 69" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.13 | 2.02 |
| Striking Accuracy | 40% | 40% |
Regarding takedowns, Matt Schnell is the not as competent as a grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.49 times per 3 rounds. Schnell is finishing his takedown attempts on 40% of the times he tries and is stuffing 43% of all takedowns attempted on him. Morales is taking his opponents to the mat on 42% of his takedown attempts and stopping 28% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Schnell is less likely to go for the finish by trying 1.2 submissions per 15 min while Morales goes for 2.9 submissions per 3 rds.
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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Matt Schnell squared up with Jimmy Flick and got a win for the night by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Flick landed 48 of 60 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Schnell finished this fight landing 88 of 117 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Flick ended up landing 12 of 20 , giving him a percentage of 60%. He landed 8 of 13 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Schnell landed 57% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 35 of 61 . Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 33 of 58 aimed at the head. 66% of the significant strikes connected on by Flick and 34% of them landed by Schnell were thrown at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Joseph Morales, he went up against Alibi Idiris and ended up getting the victory by a triangle choke in round 2. Idiris connected on 78% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Morales ended up connecting on 62% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Morales connected on 46% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 29 of 63 . He connected on 15 of 44 significant strikes to the head. Idiris connected on 28 of 56 significant strikes in that fight. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 9 of 35 aimed at the head. Relating to total strikes that he let go in that fight, Idiris ended up landing 50 of 82 and Morales ended up landing 44 of 86 of all the strikes he threw.
Other bouts to watch
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Muslim Salikhov squares up against Uros Medic. Salikhov steps into the Octagon with a record of 22-5-0. The 41-year-old steps on the scale at 170 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter stretches 70". Medic comes in at 6'1" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 11-3-0. The 32-year-old has a reach of 71". In terms of takedowns, Muslim Salikhov takes his opponents to the mat 1.08 times per 15 minutes and Uros Medic takes his opponents down 0.36 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Salikhov connects for an average of 3.39 strikes per minute and is landing 49% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage you've got Uros Medic, who connects on 60% of the strikes he attempts and is landing 5.47 per minute.
One more can't miss bout is when Ismael Bonfim is set to encounter Chris Padilla. Padilla looks to add a win to his career total of 16-6-0. The 30-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Bonfim comes in at 5'8" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 20-5-0. The 29-year-old has a wingspan of 71". In terms of grappling, Chris Padilla is able to stop 85% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is finishing his takedowns on 30% of his attempts. Bonfim is finishing his takedown tries on 33% of the tries he takes and is able to defend against 76% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the category of striking, Padilla absorbs 3.68 strikes per min and he is dishing out 4.13 strikes per min. Bonfim, at the same time, takes 3.10 strikes/min and is dealing 5.73 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Joseph Morales (-270)
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