Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos Pick, 12/06/2025 Predictions UFC 323 Odds
Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos
UFC 323
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
Saturday, December 6, 2025
Muhammad Naimov will enter the Octagon with Mairon Santos at UFC 323 on Saturday, December 6, 2025. The odds have Naimov priced at +210 while Santos is priced at -250.
Muhammad "Hillman" Naimov will be looking to add a win to his record of 13-3-0. The 31-year-old weighs 145 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 70". Mairon "The Legend" Santos comes in at 5'7" and will fight at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 17-1-0. The 25-year-old has an arm span of 72". When talking about significant strikes, Muhammad Naimov connects on 2.61 per minute while Mairon Santos is connecting on 3.53 significant strikes per min. Naimov is landing 40% of the significant strikes he throws and Santos lands 46%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Hillman" absorbs 3.45 significant strikes per minute and "The Legend" takes 2.38. Naimov also stops 45% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Santos prevents 66% of the strikes thrown his way.
| UFC 323 | Muhammad Naimov | Mairon Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +210 | -250 |
| Record | 13-3-0 | 17-1-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 11:25 | 12:10 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Reach | 70" | 72" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.61 | 3.53 |
| Striking Accuracy | 40% | 46% |
Concerning wrestling, Muhammad Naimov is the more competent wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 1.69 times per 3 rds. Naimov is taking his opponents to the canvas on 36% of his attempts and stuffing 67% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Santos is finishing his takedowns on 15% of the takedowns he tries and is stopping 50% of the attempts against him. When it comes to subbing opponents, Naimov is less apt at going for the finish by going for 0.2 subs per 3 rounds while Santos tries 0.6 subs per 15 minutes.
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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Muhammad Naimov squared up with Bogdan Grad and ended up getting the victory in the fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Grad ended up landing 49 of 88 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Naimov ended the night having landed 70 of 119 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Grad ended up landing 31 of 64 , which means his percentage was 48%. He finished the fight landing 7 of 30 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Naimov ended up landing 33% of his significant strikes by sticking 18 of 54 . In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he was 11 of 45 pointed at the head. 58% of the significant strikes connected on by Grad and 88% of them connected on by Naimov were done at a distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Mairon Santos, he battled Sodiq Yusuff and took home the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Yusuff ended up landing 97% of his significant strikes at distance while Santos landed 87% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Santos ended up connecting on 48% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 40 of 83 . He landed 22 of 56 significant strikes to the head. Yusuff ended up landing 36 of 86 significant strikes in that fight. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 9 of 44 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes thrown in that contest, Yusuff ended up connecting on 60 of 115 and Santos ended up landing 71 of 114 of the strikes he threw in total.
Other bouts to watch
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Maycee Barber encounters Karine Silva. Barber steps into the cage with a mark of 14-2-0. The 27-year-old weighs 125 lbs and stands in at 5'5". The switch fighter extends her reach 65". Silva measures 5'5" and records a weight of 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to her career record of 19-5-0. The 31-year-old extends her reach 67". In the grappling category, Maycee Barber is able to score a takedown 1.44 times per 3 rds and Karine Silva takes her opponents to the canvas 2.37 times per 3 rounds. Regarding striking, Barber is landing 4.70 strikes/minute and is connecting on 53% of her attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Karine Silva, who lands 38% of the strikes she attempts and is landing 2.73 per min.
If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Petr Yan is set to square up against Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili will be looking to add a win to his career total of 21-4-0. The 34-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and measures 5'6". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 68". Yan measures in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 19-5-0. The 32-year-old stretches 67". In terms of wrestling, Merab Dvalishvili prevents 82% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is taking his opponents to the mat on 37% of his tries. Yan is taking his opponents down on 48% of the attempts he tries and deflects 85% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Concerning striking, Dvalishvili is taking 2.55 strikes/min and he dishes out 4.33 per min. Yan, in contrast, is taking 4.14 strikes per min and connects on 5.12 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Muhammad Naimov (+210)
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