Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane Pick, 10/25/2025 Predictions UFC 321 Odds
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane
UFC 321
Eithad Arena in Abu Dhabi
Saturday, October 25, 2025
Tom Aspinall will take on Ciryl Gane at UFC 321 on Saturday, October 25, 2025. The opener has Aspinall at -370 while Gane is coming in at +295.
Tom Aspinall walks into the Octagon holding a record of 15-3-0. The 32-year-old records a weight of 253 lbs and measures in at 6'5". The orthodox fighter stretches 78". Ciryl "Bon Gamin" Gane measures 6'4" and tips the scales at 245 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career record of 13-2-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 81". Regarding significant strikes, Tom Aspinall lands 8.07 per min and Ciryl Gane is landing 5.26 significant strikes per minute. Aspinall is landing 67% of the significant strikes he tries while Gane is landing 61%. When it comes to the fighter's defense, Aspinall absorbs 2.89 significant strikes per minute and "Bon Gamin" takes 2.23. Aspinall also prevents 65% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Gane stops 61% of the shots thrown in his direction.
| UFC 321 | Tom Aspinall | Ciryl Gane |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -370 | +295 |
| Record | 15-3-0 | 13-2-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 2:02 | 14:15 |
| Height | 6'5" | 6'4" |
| Weight | 253 lbs | 245 lbs |
| Reach | 78" | 81" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 8.07 | 5.26 |
| Striking Accuracy | 67% | 61% |
In terms of takedowns, Tom Aspinall is the more efficient grappler as he scores a takedown 3.27 times per 15 min. Aspinall is getting his opponent to the mat on 85% of the times he tries and is stuffing 85% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Gane is finishing his takedowns on 25% of the takedowns he attempts and is stopping 43% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Aspinall is the more able fighter by trying 1.6 finishes per 15 min while Gane goes for 0.6 finishes per 15 min.
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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Tom Aspinall squared up with Curtis Blaydes and ended up winning this fight by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Blaydes landed 5 of 12 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Aspinall finished this fight landing 14 of 19 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Blaydes ended up landing 5 of 11, giving him a percentage of 45%. He ended up landing 5 of 11 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Aspinall ended up landing 73% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 14 of 19. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 14 of 19 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Blaydes and 28% of them landed by Aspinall were tallied at a distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Ciryl Gane, he faced off with Alexander Volkov and ended up winning this fight via split decision in round 3. Volkov ended up connecting on 92% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Gane landed 93% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Gane ended up landing 70% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 43 of 61. He connected on 14 of 30 significant strikes to the head. Volkov ended up connecting on 39 of 71 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 19 of 46 directed at the head. Regarding total strikes that he threw in that fight, Volkov connected on 105 of 140 while Gane ended up connecting on 48 of 66 total strikes.
Other bouts to watch
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Umar Nurmagomedov meets Mario Bautista. Nurmagomedov comes into this fight with a record of 18-1-0. The 29-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and stands 5'8". The orthodox fighter stretches 69". Bautista measures 5'9" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The switch fighter holds a record of 16-2-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 69". In terms of takedowns, Umar Nurmagomedov scores a takedown 3.26 times per 3 rounds while Mario Bautista takes his opponents down 1.67 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Nurmagomedov tags his opponents 4.38 strikes per minute and is connecting on 57% of the strikes that he throws. Joining him in the Octagon is Mario Bautista, who connects on 49% of the strikes he has tried and connects on 6.13 per min.
If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Jailton Almeida is set to square up in the Octagon against Alexander Volkov. Volkov holds a mark of 38-11-0. The 36-year-old records a weight of 250 lbs and stands 6'7". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 80". Almeida stands 6'3" and is weighing in at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 22-3-0. The 34-year-old stretches 79". In terms of grappling, Alexander Volkov curbs 72% of his opponents' takedown tries and is finishing his takedowns on 66% of his tries. Almeida is finishing his takedown tries on 60% of his attempts and is able to defend against 60% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the matter of striking, Volkov is absorbing 2.99 strikes/min while he connects on 4.97 per minute. Almeida, notwithstanding, takes 0.89 strikes/minute and dishes out 2.62 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tom Aspinall (-370)
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