Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista Pick, 10/25/2025 Predictions UFC 321 Odds
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista
UFC 321
Eithad Arena in Abu Dhabi
Saturday, October 25, 2025
Umar Nurmagomedov will face off against Mario Bautista at UFC 321 on Saturday, October 25, 2025. The opener has Nurmagomedov coming in at -600 while Bautista is coming in at +450.
Umar Nurmagomedov comes into this fight with a record of 18-1-0. The 29-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and stands 5'8". The orthodox fighter stretches 69". Mario Bautista measures 5'9" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The switch fighter holds a record of 16-2-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 69". Regarding significant strikes, Umar Nurmagomedov lands 4.38 per minute while Mario Bautista is connecting on 6.13 significant strikes per minute. Nurmagomedov is landing 57% of the significant strikes he attempts and Bautista is connecting on 49%. Regarding defense, Nurmagomedov allows 2.15 significant strikes per min while Bautista allows 4.45. Nurmagomedov also prevents 60% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Bautista stops 55% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC 321 | Umar Nurmagomedov | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -600 | +450 |
| Record | 18-1-0 | 16-2-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:48 | 9:43 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Reach | 69" | 69" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.38 | 6.13 |
| Striking Accuracy | 57% | 49% |
In terms of takedowns, Umar Nurmagomedov is the more productive grappler as he is averaging a takedown 3.26 times per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov is getting his opponent to the mat on 39% of the times he tries and is stopping 78% of all takedown tries against him. Bautista is taking his opponents to the mat on 33% of his takedown tries and is defending 67% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Nurmagomedov is the lesser skilled of the two fighters by attempting 0.3 finishes per 15 min while Bautista tries 0.8 finishes per 3 rds.
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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Umar Nurmagomedov squared up with Merab Dvalishvili and took a loss on the night via unanimous decision in round 5. Dvalishvili landed 142 of 293 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Nurmagomedov walked away from this fight having landed 113 of 246 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Dvalishvili ended up landing 111 of 259, which gave him a rate of 42%. He ended up landing 71 of 207 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Nurmagomedov landed 43% of his significant strikes by landing 104 of 237. Of all the significant strikes, he connected on 76 of 199 pointed at the head. 79% of the significant strikes landed by Dvalishvili and 88% of them landed by Nurmagomedov were tallied at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Mario Bautista, he squared up with Patchy Mix and took home the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Mix ended up connecting on 96% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Bautista connected on 99% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Bautista ended up landing 57% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 173 of 302. He landed 96 of 216 significant strikes to the head. Mix connected on 122 of 304 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up connecting on 92 of 265 to the head. Relating to total strikes that he threw in that fight, Mix connected on 122 of 304 while Bautista ended up landing 173 of 302 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other fights on the card to watch
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Alexander Volkov goes up against Jailton Almeida. Volkov holds a mark of 38-11-0. The 36-year-old records a weight of 250 lbs and stands 6'7". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 80". Almeida stands 6'3" and is weighing in at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 22-3-0. The 34-year-old stretches 79". In the grappling category, Alexander Volkov gets a takedown 0.61 times per 15 minutes while Jailton Almeida gets a takedown 6.58 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Volkov connects for an average of 4.97 strikes/minute and connecting on 57% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Jailton Almeida, who is connecting on 65% of the strikes he has thrown and is landing 2.62 per minute.
One more can't miss bout is when Azamat Murzakanov is set to square up in the Octagon with Aleksandar Rakic. Rakic has a career mark of 14-5-0. The 33-year-old tips the scales at 205 lbs and measures in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 78". Murzakanov measures in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his record of 15-0-0. The 36-year-old has an arm span of 71". In terms of grappling, Aleksandar Rakic is able to stop 85% of the takedowns his opponents try and is taking his opponents to the mat on 23% of his attempts. Murzakanov is taking his opponents down on 15% of his attempts and stops 83% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the category of striking, Rakic absorbs 2.91 strikes per minute and he is dealing 4.16 strikes/minute. Murzakanov, at the same time, is absorbing 2.86 strikes/min and is connecting on 4.93 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Mario Bautista (+450)
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