Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez Pick, 10/11/2025 Predictions UFC Rio Odds
Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez
UFC Rio
Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Vicente Luque will face off against Joel Alvarez at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The opening moneyline has Luque at +420 while Alvarez is priced at -550.
Vicente "The Silent Assassin" Luque holds a mark of 23-11-1. The 33-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and stands in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 75". Joel "El Fenomeno" Alvarez stands 6'3" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 22-3-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 77". Concerning significant strikes, Vicente Luque is landing 5.02 per minute and Joel Alvarez is connecting on 4.51 significant strikes per minute. Luque is landing 51% of the significant strikes he throws while Alvarez is landing 53%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, "The Silent Assassin" allows 5.25 significant strikes per minute while "El Fenomeno" absorbs 3.32. Luque also deflects 52% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Alvarez curbs 50% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC Rio | Vicente Luque | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +420 | -550 |
| Record | 23-11-1 | 22-3-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 9:28 | 7:04 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Weight | 170 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 75" | 77" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.02 | 4.51 |
| Striking Accuracy | 51% | 53% |
Concerning wrestling, Vicente Luque is the more productive wrestler as he scores a takedown 0.97 times per 15 minutes. Luque is finishing his takedown attempts on 51% of his attempts and stopping 61% of the takedowns his opponents try. Alvarez is finishing his takedown attempts on 0% of the takedowns he attempts and stuffing 40% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. When it comes to going for the submission, Luque is less likely to go for the finish by attempting 0.7 submissions per 3 rds while Alvarez goes for 1.2 submissions per 3 rds.
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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Vicente Luque faced Kevin Holland and was defeated by an anaconda choke in round 2. Holland landed 44 of 78 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Luque ended the night having landed 24 of 46 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Holland landed 40 of 74, giving him a percentage of 54%. He ended up landing 25 of 58 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Luque landed 52% of his significant strikes by connecting on 24 of 46. Of those significant strikes, he landed 14 of 32 pointed at the head. 65% of the significant strikes connected on by Holland and 100% of them landed by Luque were tallied at a distance.
In the last bout for Joel Alvarez, he fought Drakkar Klose and wound up taking home the win via a knee to the head in round 1. Klose ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Alvarez landed 60% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Alvarez ended up landing 83% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 20 of 24. He ended up landing 15 of 19 significant strikes to the head. Klose ended up landing 7 of 13 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up landing 1 of 6 directed at the head. Relating to total strikes that he let go in that fight, Klose ended up landing 16 of 23 and Alvarez ended up connecting on 39 of 44 total strikes.
Other fights to keep an eye on
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Jhonata Diniz opposes Mario Pinto. Diniz comes into this fight holding a mark of 9-1-0. The 34-year-old weighs 254 lbs and stands in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter reaches 79". Pinto stands in at 6'5" and tips the scales at 265 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 10-0-0. The 27-year-old stretches 79". Regarding grappling, Jhonata Diniz takes his opponents down 0.00 times per 15 minutes while Mario Pinto scores a takedown 0.00 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Diniz lands 4.58 strikes/minute and lands 56% of the strikes that he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Mario Pinto, who tags his opponent on 71% of the strikes he attempts and connects on 3.67 per minute.
If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Kaan Ofli is set to take on Ricardo Ramos. Ramos has a career record of 17-7-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 72". Ofli comes in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his record of 12-4-1. The 32-year-old extends his reach 66". Regarding wrestling, Ricardo Ramos prevents 70% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is taking his opponents to the mat on 57% of his attempts. Ofli is taking his opponents down on 0% of the attempts he tries and is able to deflect 0% of the takedowns his opponents try. Concerning striking, Ramos absorbs 4.06 strikes per min while he deals 2.97 per min. Ofli, in contrast, absorbs 2.93 strikes/minute and is dishing out 2.00 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Vicente Luque (+420)
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