Chidi Njokuani vs Carlos Leal Pick, 02/21/2026 Predictions UFC Houston Odds

Chidi Njokuani vs Carlos Leal

UFC Houston

Toyota Center in Houston, TX

Saturday, February 21, 2026

Chidi Njokuani will enter the Octagon with Carlos Leal at UFC Houston on Saturday, February 21, 2026. The opening odds have Njokuani at +105 while Leal is priced at -125.

Chidi "Bang Bang" Njokuani comes into this bout with a record of 25-11-0 (1 NC). The 37-year-old steps on the scale at 170 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 80". Carlos "The Lion" Leal measures in at 5'11" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a mark of 22-7-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach 74". With respect to significant strikes, Chidi Njokuani is landing 4.72 per min and Carlos Leal is landing 9.57 significant strikes per min. Njokuani connects on 62% of the significant strikes he throws and Leal is connecting on 50%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "Bang Bang" absorbs 2.64 significant strikes per min while "The Lion" takes 7.61. Njokuani also thwarts 57% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Leal defends against 53% of the shots thrown his way.

Concerning takedowns, Chidi Njokuani is not as effective of a wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 0.50 times per 3 rounds. Njokuani is scoring a takedown on 15% of his attempts and stopping 73% of all takedown tries against him. Leal is taking his opponents down on 25% of his takedown tries and stopping 90% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding submissions, Njokuani is the lesser skilled fighter by trying 0.2 submissions per 3 rds while Leal attempts 0.6 submissions per 3 rounds.

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In his last bout, Chidi Njokuani squared up with Jake Matthews and wound up losing the fight by way of rear naked choke in round 1. Matthews ended up landing 5 of 9 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Njokuani finished this fight landing 5 of 10 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Matthews ended up landing 3 of 7, which gave him a percentage of 42%. He ended up landing 3 of 7 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Njokuani ended up landing 50% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 5 of 10. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he was 0 of 2 pointed at the head. 66% of the significant strikes connected on by Matthews and 80% of them landed by Njokuani were done at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Carlos Leal, he faced off with Muslim Salikhov and was defeated by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Salikhov landed 100% of his significant strikes at distance and Leal ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Leal landed 55% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 5 of 9. He ended up landing 5 of 9 significant strikes to the head. Salikhov ended up landing 3 of 9 significant strikes in that battle. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 1 of 4 to the head. In relation to total strikes attempted in that fight, Salikhov ended up connecting on 3 of 9 and Leal landed 5 of 9 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Ode Osbourne squares up with Alibi Idiris. Osbourne holds a career mark of 13-9-0 (1 NC). The 34-year-old records a weight of 125 lbs and stands 5'7". The southpaw fighter reaches 73". Idiris comes in at 5'6" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 11-1-0. The 31-year-old reaches 68". Regarding grappling, Ode Osbourne is averaging a takedown 1.09 times per 3 rds while Alibi Idiris takes his opponents down 0.60 times per 3 rounds. When talking about striking, Osbourne connects for an average of 3.07 strikes per minute and landing 41% of the strikes that he throws. The other guy in this fight is Alibi Idiris, who is connecting on 50% of the strikes he has attempted and lands an average of 3.47 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Luis Gurule is set to go up against Alden Coria. Coria steps into the Octagon with a mark of 11-3-0 (1 NC). The 27-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 67". Gurule comes in at 5'5" and weighs 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his record of 10-2-0. The 32-year-old has a wingspan of 64". In terms of wrestling, Alden Coria curbs 75% of his opponents' takedown tries and is getting his opponent to the mat on 85% of his attempts. Gurule is taking his opponents to the mat on 9% of the tries he takes and curbs 56% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Coria is absorbing 1.11 strikes/min and he is connecting on 3.89 strikes/min. Gurule, in contrast, absorbs 4.53 strikes/minute and lands 4.93 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Carlos Leal (-125)

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