Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds

by Tony Sink - 2/27/2026

Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho

UFC Mexico

Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Cristian Quinonez will enter the Octagon against Kris Moutinho at UFC Mexico on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The moneyline has Quinonez priced at -650 while Moutinho is coming in at +475.

Cristian "Problema" Quinonez holds a career mark of 18-5-0. The 29-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and comes in at 5' 8". The orthodox fighter stretches 70". Kris Moutinho stands in at 5' 7" and will fight at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter comes into this fight holding a mark of 14-7-0. The 33-year-old extends his reach 68". Regarding significant strikes, Cristian Quinonez is connecting on 4.19 per min and Kris Moutinho is connecting on 4.51 significant strikes per min. Quinonez connects on 40% of the significant strikes he attempts and Moutinho connects on 31%. In terms of the fighter's defense, "Problema" allows 4.55 significant strikes per minute while Moutinho allows 14.68. Quinonez also thwarts 55% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Moutinho is able to curb 29% of the strikes thrown his way.

ufc picks Cristian Quinonez predictions best bet odds

UFC Mexico	Cristian Quinonez	Kris Moutinho
Opening Odds	-650	+475
Record	18-5-0	14-7-0
Average Fight Time	8:11	6:26
Height	5' 8"	5' 7"
Weight	135 lbs	135 lbs
Reach	70"	68"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.19	4.51
Striking Accuracy	40%	31%

Concerning takedowns, Cristian Quinonez is the more productive grappler as he is able to score a takedown 1.37 times per 3 rounds. Quinonez is finishing his takedown attempts on 37% of the times he tries and stopping 84% of all takedown attempts. Moutinho is finishing his takedowns on 15% of his takedown attempts and is stopping 15% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Quinonez is less apt at going for the finish by attempting 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes while Moutinho tries 0.7 finishes per 3 rounds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Cristian Quinonez went up against Raoni Barcelos and walked away in defeat by way of rear naked choke in round 3. Barcelos landed 48 of 81 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Quinonez ended the night having landed 43 of 99 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Barcelos landed 43 of 74, which gave him a rate of 58%. He landed 26 of 54 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Quinonez landed 35% of his significant strikes by landing 29 of 82. Out of those significant strikes, he was 17 of 67 aimed at the head. 88% of the significant strikes connected on by Barcelos and 89% of them connected on by Quinonez were thrown at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Kris Moutinho, he fought Malcolm Wellmaker and was defeated via a punch to the head in round 1. Wellmaker ended up landing 88% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Moutinho landed 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Moutinho ended up landing 22% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 6 of 27. He connected on 3 of 23 significant strikes directed at the head. Wellmaker ended up landing 25 of 39 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 11 of 23 directed at the head. In terms of total strikes thrown, Wellmaker connected on 25 of 39 while Moutinho ended up landing 7 of 28 total strikes.

Other bouts to watch out for

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Douglas Silva de Andrade squares up against Javier Reyes. Silva de Andrade comes into this fight with a record of 29-6-0 (1 NC). The 40-year-old records a weight of 145 lbs and measures in at 5' 7". The orthodox fighter stretches 68". Reyes measures 5' 7" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 22-5-0. The 32-year-old has a reach of 73". In terms of takedowns, Douglas Silva de Andrade is able to score a takedown 0.55 times per 3 rounds while Javier Reyes scores a takedown 0.20 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Silva de Andrade is landing 3.54 strikes per min and is connecting on 38% of the strikes that he throws. The other guy in this fight is Javier Reyes, who lands 46% of the strikes he has thrown and is connecting on 8.29 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Francis Marshall is set to face off against Erik Silva. Silva steps into the cage holding a record of 9-3-0. The 38-year-old records a weight of 145 lbs and measures in at 5' 9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Marshall comes in at 5' 9" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 8-3-0. The 26-year-old reaches 72". In the category of takedowns, Erik Silva stops 62% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedowns on 80% of his tries. Marshall is finishing his takedown tries on 44% of the attempts he tries and is able to defend against 66% of all takedown tries against him. Concerning striking, Silva is taking 1.57 strikes per min while he deals 2.07 strikes/min. Marshall, on the other side, is absorbing 4.10 strikes/minute and dishes out 3.46 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Kris Moutinho (+475)

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Start:	February 27, 2026 @ 10:00 PM
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Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds

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