Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas Pick, 03/28/2026 Predictions UFC Seattle Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 3/27/2026

Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas

UFC Seattle

Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Julian Erosa will take on Lerryan Douglas at UFC Seattle on Saturday, March 28, 2026. The opener has Erosa at +285 while Douglas is at -350.

Julian "Juicy J" Erosa steps into the cage with a record of 31-13-0. The 36-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and measures 6'1". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 74". Lerryan "Gunslinger" Douglas measures in at 5'9" and tips the scales at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 13-5-0. The 30-year-old reaches 72". Regarding significant strikes, Julian Erosa lands 6.21 per minute and Lerryan Douglas connects on 11.67 significant strikes per minute. Erosa connects on 48% of the significant strikes he tries and Douglas connects on 87%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, "Juicy J" absorbs 6.27 significant strikes per minute and "Gunslinger" absorbs 5.00. Erosa also prevents 48% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Douglas is able to curb 66% of the strikes thrown his way.

UFC Seattle	Julian Erosa	Lerryan Douglas
Opening Odds	+285	-350
Record	31-13-0	13-5-0
Average Fight Time	7:59	0:36
Height	6'1"	5'9"
Weight	145 lbs	145 lbs
Reach	74"	72"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	6.21	11.67
Striking Accuracy	48%	87%

In terms of wrestling, Julian Erosa is the more productive grappler as he is able to score a takedown 1.78 times per 3 rds. Erosa is taking his opponents to the canvas on 43% of the times he tries and defending 61% of all takedown attempts. Douglas is taking his opponents to the canvas on 15% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 15% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Erosa is the more skilled technician by attempting 0.7 submissions per 3 rds while Douglas goes for 0.4 submissions per 15 minutes.

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In his last bout, Julian Erosa faced Melquizael Costa and wound up taking the loss via unanimous decision in round 3. Costa ended up landing 128 of 236 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Erosa finished this fight landing 85 of 202 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Costa ended up landing 102 of 204, which gave him a percentage of 50%. He finished the fight landing 67 of 160 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Erosa ended up landing 39% of his significant strikes by connecting on 69 of 173. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 42 of 140 to the head. 97% of the significant strikes landed by Costa and 79% of them landed by Erosa were done at distance.

In the last fight for Lerryan Douglas, he faced off with Cam Teague and wound up taking home the win via a punch to the head in round 1. Teague ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Douglas connected on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Douglas landed 87% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 7 of 8. He landed 4 of 5 significant strikes to the head. Teague ended up landing 3 of 9 significant strikes in that battle. Of those significant strikes, he connected on 0 of 5 directed at the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go in that fight, Teague ended up landing 3 of 9 while Douglas was 9 of 10 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Mansur Abdul-Malik enters the Octagon against Yousri Belgaroui. Abdul-Malik walks into the cage with a mark of 9-0-1. The 28-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and stands in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 80". Belgaroui comes in at 6'6" and is fighting at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 9-3-0. The 33-year-old has a reach of 79". When it comes to grappling, Mansur Abdul-Malik gets his opposition to the mat 0.94 times per 3 rds while Yousri Belgaroui is able to score a takedown 0.39 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Abdul-Malik is connecting on 4.18 strikes per minute and landing 48% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Yousri Belgaroui, who is connecting on 66% of the strikes he attempts and connects for an average of 5.82 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Kyle Nelson is set to square up with Terrance McKinney. McKinney looks to add a win to his record of 17-8-0. The 31-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5'10". The switch fighter has an arm span of 73". Nelson stands in at 5'11" and weighs 155 lbs. The switch fighter will be looking to add a win to his career record of 17-6-1. The 34-year-old has an arm span of 71". In the category of takedowns, Terrance McKinney thwarts 72% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is scoring a takedown on 40% of the times he tries. Nelson is finishing his takedowns on 23% of the tries he takes and is able to curb 66% of the takedowns his opponents try. With reference to striking, McKinney takes 3.46 strikes per minute and he is dealing 6.24 strikes/minute. Nelson, in contrast, is taking 4.48 strikes per min and is connecting on 3.60 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Julian Erosa (+285)

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Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas Pick, 03/28/2026 Predictions UFC Seattle Odds

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