Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Pick, 01/24/2026 Predictions UFC 324 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 1/22/2026

Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

UFC 324

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Saturday, January 24, 2026

Justin Gaethje will face off against Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, 2026. The opening line has Gaethje coming in at +190 while Pimblett is coming in at -225.

Justin "The Highlight" Gaethje looks to add a win to his career total of 26-5-0. The 37-year-old records a weight of 155 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter reaches 70". Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett stands in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 23-3-0. The 31-year-old has a reach of 73". In terms of significant strikes, Justin Gaethje lands 6.59 per minute and Paddy Pimblett is landing 5.19 significant strikes per minute. Gaethje is connecting on 58% of the significant strikes he tries while Pimblett is landing 53%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "The Highlight" allows 7.18 significant strikes per minute while "The Baddy" takes 3.14. Gaethje also defends 51% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Pimblett prevents 42% of the shots thrown his way.

ufc picks Justin Gaethje predictions best bet odds

UFC 324	Justin Gaethje	Paddy Pimblett
Opening Odds	+190	-225
Record	26-5-0	23-3-0
Average Fight Time	11:14	8:56
Height	5'11"	5'10"
Weight	155 lbs	155 lbs
Reach	70"	73"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	6.59	5.19
Striking Accuracy	58%	53%

In the category of takedowns, Justin Gaethje is not as efficient of a wrestler as he scores a takedown 0.10 times per 3 rds. Gaethje is scoring a takedown on 14% of the times he tries and stopping 68% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Pimblett is finishing his takedown tries on 28% of his takedown attempts and is stopping 50% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding going for the sub, Gaethje is less apt at going for the finish by attempting 0.7 submissions per 3 rounds while Pimblett goes for 1.7 submissions per 15 min.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Justin Gaethje squared up with Rafael Fiziev and wound up taking home the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Fiziev ended up landing 81 of 134 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Gaethje walked away from this fight having landed 98 of 163 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Fiziev ended up landing 68 of 119, which means his percentage was 57%. He ended up landing 20 of 61 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Gaethje ended up landing 53% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 72 of 134. Of all the significant strikes, he was 56 of 117 pointed at the head. 72% of the significant strikes landed by Fiziev and 56% of them connected on by Gaethje were done at distance.

In the last fight for Paddy Pimblett, he went up against Michael Chandler and ended up getting the victory by way of an elbow to the head in round 3. Chandler landed 90% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Pimblett landed 53% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Pimblett ended up landing 55% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 80 of 143. He landed 61 of 119 significant strikes to the head. Chandler connected on 11 of 28 significant strikes in that battle. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 6 of 18 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes thrown in that contest, Chandler connected on 20 of 39 while Pimblett landed 121 of 197 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to keep an eye on

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Sean O'Malley meets Song Yadong. O'Malley steps into the Octagon with a mark of 18-3-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'11". The switch fighter reaches 72". Yadong stands in at 5'8" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 22-8-1 (1 NC). The 28-year-old extends his reach 67". Regarding grappling, Sean O'Malley is averaging a takedown 0.27 times per 15 min and Song Yadong takes his opponents down 0.61 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, O'Malley lands 6.30 strikes per min and connecting on 61% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Song Yadong, who tags the opposition on 43% of the strikes he attempts and connects on 4.58 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Derrick Lewis is set to face off against Waldo Cortes Acosta. Cortes Acosta steps into the cage with a mark of 16-2-0. The 34-year-old is weighing in at 260 lbs and stands in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 78". Lewis stands 6'3" and is weighing in at 260 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 29-12-0 (1 NC). The 40-year-old has an arm span of 79". Concerning grappling, Waldo Cortes Acosta is able to deflect 72% of the takedowns his opponents try and is scoring a takedown on 50% of the times he tries. Lewis is finishing his takedown tries on 26% of his attempts and prevents 52% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Cortes Acosta is taking 3.53 strikes per min and he lands 5.55 per min. Lewis, on the other side, is taking 2.49 strikes per minute and is dishing out 2.51 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Justin Gaethje (+190)

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Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Pick, 01/24/2026 Predictions UFC 324 Odds

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