Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid Pick, 11/07/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 124 Odds

by Tony Sink - 11/4/2026

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid

UFC Vegas 124

Meta Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, November 7, 2026

Keiichiro Nakamura will face off with Ollie Schmid at UFC Vegas 124 on Saturday, November 7, 2026. The opening line has Nakamura coming in at -315 while Schmid is priced at +258.

Keiichiro Nakamura has a career record of 8-1-0. The 27-year-old weighs 145 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 70". Ollie "The Hungarian Stallion" Schmid stands 6'0" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 4-3-0. The 25-year-old has an arm span of 71". With respect to significant strikes, Keiichiro Nakamura is landing 4.48 per min and Ollie Schmid connects on 3.23 significant strikes per min. Nakamura lands 41% of the significant strikes he throws while Schmid is landing 30%. When it comes to defending themselves, Nakamura allows 4.28 significant strikes per min and "The Hungarian Stallion" absorbs 7.90. Nakamura also thwarts 63% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Schmid thwarts 45% of the shots thrown his way.

ufc picks Ollie Schmid predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 124	Keiichiro Nakamura	Ollie Schmid
Opening Odds	-315	+258
Record	8-1-0	4-3-0
Average Fight Time	12:04	2:47
Height	5'10"	6'0"
Weight	145 lbs	145 lbs
Reach	70"	71"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.48	3.23
Striking Accuracy	41%	30%

In terms of grappling, Keiichiro Nakamura is the more apt grappler as he scores a takedown 0.80 times per 15 minutes. Nakamura is getting his opponent to the mat on 15% of the times he tries and is stuffing 78% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Schmid is taking his opponents down on 15% of the takedowns he attempts and thwarting 15% of the tries against him. Regarding submission attempts, Nakamura is the more apt fighter by trying 0.6 finishes per 3 rds while Schmid goes for 0.4 finishes per 3 rounds.

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The last time he fought, Keiichiro Nakamura fought Sebastian Szalay and took home the win by way of a knee to the head in round 3. Szalay landed 80 of 205 total strikes that he let go. Nakamura finished this fight landing 46 of 120 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Szalay ended up landing 79 of 204, which gave him a rate of 38%. He landed 47 of 150 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Nakamura landed 37% of his significant strikes by connecting on 45 of 119. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he was 21 of 86 to the head. 98% of the significant strikes landed by Szalay and 91% of them connected on by Nakamura were done at a distance.

In the last bout for Ollie Schmid, he fought Marwan Rahiki and walked away with a loss by a punch to the head in round 1. Rahiki connected on 86% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Schmid connected on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Schmid landed 30% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 9 of 30. He landed 0 of 15 significant strikes to the head. Rahiki landed 22 of 40 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, he landed 14 of 25 to the head. Regarding total strikes attempted in that fight, Rahiki ended up connecting on 22 of 40 and Schmid ended up landing 9 of 30 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to keep an eye on

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Jonny Parsons squares up with Jose Souza. Parsons walks into the cage holding a record of 9-3-0. The 35-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 69". Souza stands in at 6'3" and will fight at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career mark of 9-1-0. The 24-year-old extends his reach 79". In terms of takedowns, Jonny Parsons takes his opponents to the canvas 0.90 times per 3 rds and Jose Souza takes his opponents down 0.60 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Parsons connects for an average of 4.65 strikes/minute and landing 44% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is Jose Souza, who tags his opponent on 45% of the strikes he has thrown and connects on 4.24 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Virna Jandiroba is set to go up against Tatiana Suarez. Suarez comes into this bout holding a record of 13-1-0. The 35-year-old weighs in at 115 lbs and measures 5'5". The southpaw fighter reaches 66". Jandiroba measures in at 5'3" and will fight at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to her total of 23-4-0. The 38-year-old reaches 64". In terms of wrestling, Tatiana Suarez curbs 57% of her opponents takedown tries and is taking her opponents to the canvas on 45% of her tries. Jandiroba is taking her opponents down on 39% of her tries and defends against 72% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Suarez absorbs 1.63 strikes/min while she is dealing 2.86 strikes/min. Jandiroba, in contrast, absorbs 2.86 strikes per minute and is dishing out 2.27 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Ollie Schmid (+258)

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Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid Pick, 11/07/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 124 Odds

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