Mitch Raposo vs Allan Nascimento Pick, 04/18/2026 Predictions UFC Winnipeg Odds
Mitch Raposo vs Allan Nascimento
UFC Winnipeg
Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg
Saturday, April 18, 2026
Mitch Raposo will enter the Octagon against Allan Nascimento at UFC Winnipeg on Saturday, April 18, 2026. The opening line has Raposo priced at +160 while Nascimento is at -185.
Mitch Raposo has a mark of 10-3-0. The 27-year-old weighs in at 125 lbs and stands 5'5". The switch fighter reaches 64". Allan "Puro Osso" Nascimento comes in at 5'8" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 22-6-0. The 34-year-old has an arm span of 69". Regarding significant strikes, Mitch Raposo is landing 1.73 per minute and Allan Nascimento connects on 3.06 significant strikes per minute. Raposo connects on 36% of the significant strikes he attempts while Nascimento connects on 55%. Regarding defense, Raposo takes 2.65 significant strikes per minute and "Puro Osso" takes 2.53. Raposo also stops 61% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Nascimento prevents 52% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC Winnipeg | Mitch Raposo | Allan Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +160 | -185 |
| Record | 10-3-0 | 22-6-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:18 | 11:55 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'8" |
| Weight | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| Reach | 64" | 69" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 1.73 | 3.06 |
| Striking Accuracy | 36% | 55% |
In terms of grappling, Mitch Raposo is the more efficient grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 2.54 times per 15 minutes. Raposo is taking his opponents to the canvas on 37% of his tries and stopping 61% of all takedowns attempted on him. Nascimento is finishing his takedown attempts on 23% of his takedown tries and stuffing 37% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Raposo is less likely to go for the finish by going for 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes while Nascimento tries 1.1 submissions per 3 rounds.
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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Mitch Raposo fought Azat Maksum and wound up taking home the win by unanimous decision in round 3. Maksum ended up landing 30 of 101 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Raposo ended the night having landed 53 of 92 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Maksum landed 19 of 88, which means his percentage was 21%. He landed 14 of 80 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Raposo ended up landing 45% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 30 of 66. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he was 20 of 50 to the head. 89% of the significant strikes connected on by Maksum and 100% of them landed by Raposo were tallied at a distance.
In the last bout for Allan Nascimento, he went up against Cody Durden and took home the victory by an anaconda choke in round 2. Durden ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Nascimento ended up connecting on 98% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Nascimento landed 45% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 52 of 115. He ended up connecting on 19 of 69 significant strikes to the head. Durden ended up landing 57 of 128 significant strikes in that battle. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 47 of 112 to the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go in that contest, Durden connected on 57 of 128 and Nascimento ended up landing 52 of 115 of all the strikes he threw.
Other fights on the card to keep an eye on
Another fight to keep an eye on is when John Castaneda squares up with Mark Vologdin. Castaneda has a career record of 21-8-0. The 34-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and measures 5'6". The switch fighter stretches 71". Vologdin stands in at 5'3" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 12-4-1. The 25-year-old reaches 65". In the grappling category, John Castaneda gets his opposition to the mat 1.68 times per 15 min while Mark Vologdin takes his opponents to the mat 0.90 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Castaneda is connecting on 4.42 strikes per minute and is landing 50% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Mark Vologdin, who tags his opponent on 52% of the strikes he has attempted and connects on 7.80 per minute.
If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Karine Silva is set to go up against Jasmine Jasudavicius. Jasudavicius will be looking to add a victory to her career record of 14-4-0. The 37-year-old weighs 125 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 68". Silva measures 5'5" and is weighing in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 19-6-0. The 32-year-old extends her reach 67". Regarding wrestling, Jasmine Jasudavicius curbs 75% of the takedowns her opponents try and is scoring a takedown on 44% of the times she tries. Silva is taking her opponents to the mat on 50% of her tries and thwarts 21% of the takedowns her opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Jasudavicius is absorbing 3.71 strikes per min while she lands 3.70 per minute. Silva, at the same time, takes 3.04 strikes/min and is dishing out 2.48 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Allan Nascimento (-185)
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