Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy Pick, 03/21/2026 Predictions UFC London Odds

Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy

UFC London

O2 Arena in London

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Movsar Evloev will face off against Lerone Murphy at UFC London on Saturday, March 21, 2026. The opener has Evloev coming in at -225 while Murphy is priced at +190.

Movsar Evloev will be looking to add a win to his record of 19-0-0. The 32-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and measures 5'7". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 72". Lerone "The Miracle" Murphy comes in at 5'9" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight holding a mark of 17-0-1. The 34-year-old reaches 73". With respect to significant strikes, Movsar Evloev connects on 3.99 per minute while Lerone Murphy lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute. Evloev lands 48% of the significant strikes he tries and Murphy connects on 53%. Regarding defending in the cage, Evloev allows 2.66 significant strikes per min while "The Miracle" absorbs 2.51. Evloev also defends against 60% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Murphy curbs 61% of the shots thrown.

Concerning wrestling, Movsar Evloev is the more productive grappler as he is able to score a takedown 4.67 times per 15 minutes. Evloev is getting his opponent to the mat on 48% of his tries and is stopping 61% of the takedowns his opponents try. Murphy is scoring a takedown on 54% of his takedown attempts and stuffing 51% of the attempts against him. In terms of submissions, Evloev is less likely to go for the finish by going for 0.2 subs per 3 rounds while Murphy tries 0.5 subs per 3 rds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Movsar Evloev faced Aljamain Sterling and ended up getting the victory by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Sterling ended up landing 45 of 67 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Evloev walked away from this fight having landed 136 of 165 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Sterling landed 12 of 26, which means his percentage was 46%. He finished the fight landing 7 of 16 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Evloev landed 30% of his significant strikes by landing 8 of 26. Out of those significant strikes, he was 6 of 23 pointed at the head. 75% of the significant strikes connected on by Sterling and 75% of them landed by Evloev were tallied at a distance.

In the last fight for Lerone Murphy, he fought Aaron Pico and wound up getting the victory via a spinning back elbow to the head in round 1. Pico landed 53% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Murphy landed 75% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Murphy connected on 50% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 8 of 16. He landed 4 of 9 significant strikes aimed at the head. Pico connected on 13 of 29 significant strikes in that fight. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up connecting on 7 of 23 directed at the head. In terms of total strikes that he let go in that contest, Pico ended up connecting on 13 of 30 and Murphy was 8 of 16 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Luke Riley opposes Michael Aswell. Riley comes into this bout with a record of 12-0-0. The 26-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 69". Aswell measures in at 5'8" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 11-3-0. The 25-year-old has a wingspan of 69". In terms of takedowns, Luke Riley is averaging a takedown 0.90 times per 3 rounds while Michael Aswell scores a takedown 0.40 times per 15 min. In the striking category, Riley connects on 2.55 strikes per minute and lands 60% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Michael Aswell, who is connecting on 45% of the strikes that he throws and is landing 9.56 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Sam Patterson is set to face off with Michael Page. Page looks to add a victory to his career total of 24-3-0. The 38-year-old weighs in at 170 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The switch fighter has an arm span of 79". Patterson stands 6'3" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 14-2-1. The 29-year-old extends his reach 78". Concerning wrestling, Michael Page is stopping 66% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 16% of the times he tries. Patterson is finishing his takedowns on 85% of the attempts he tries and curbs 33% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the matter of striking, Page is absorbing 1.68 strikes per min while he is connecting on 2.39 strikes/minute. Patterson, moreover, is taking 3.93 strikes/minute and is dishing out 3.89 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Movsar Evloev (-225)

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