Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez Pick, 04/25/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 116 Odds
Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez
UFC Vegas 116
Meta APEX in Las Vegas
Saturday, April 25, 2026
Rafa Garcia will battle Alexander Hernandez at UFC Vegas 116 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. The opening line has Garcia at -105 while Hernandez is coming in at -115.
Rafa "Gifted" Garcia looks to add a victory to his total of 18-4-0. The 31-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and stands 5'7". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 70". Alexander "El Gran Chango" Hernandez comes in at 5'9" and records a weight of 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career mark of 18-8-0. The 33-year-old reaches 72". In the category of significant strikes, Rafa Garcia is connecting on 4.31 per min while Alexander Hernandez connects on 4.31 significant strikes per minute. Garcia is connecting on 45% of the significant strikes he throws and Hernandez is landing 40%. Concerning the fighter's defense, "Gifted" takes 4.54 significant strikes per min and "El Gran Chango" allows 4.50. Garcia also defends 61% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Hernandez is able to deflect 59% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| UFC Vegas 116 | Rafa Garcia | Alexander Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -105 | -115 |
| Record | 18-4-0 | 18-8-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:24 | 10:05 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 70" | 72" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.31 | 4.31 |
| Striking Accuracy | 45% | 40% |
Regarding takedowns, Rafa Garcia is the more effective grappler as he is able to score a takedown 3.13 times per 3 rds. Garcia is scoring a takedown on 44% of the times he tries and thwarting 76% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Hernandez is taking his opponents to the canvas on 36% of his takedown attempts and thwarting 73% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. In terms of submission attempts, Garcia is the more experienced submission fighter by trying 0.5 submissions per 15 minutes while Hernandez goes for 0.1 submissions per 3 rounds.
Today’s Featured MMA Best Bet!
You can get this top rated play complimentary when you set up a free $60 account here at Doc’s Sports and use part of it towards his a one day MMA package. Join Now!
|
Get all of our UFC Betting Picks
In his last bout, Rafa Garcia fought Jared Gordon and wound up taking home the victory via elbows to the head in round 3. Gordon ended up landing 80 of 201 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Garcia walked away from this fight having landed 107 of 179 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Gordon landed 65 of 186, giving him a percentage of 34%. He landed 55 of 171 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Garcia ended up landing 56% of his significant strikes by sticking 91 of 162. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 74 of 144 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Gordon and 76% of them landed by Garcia were thrown at distance.
In the last fight for Alexander Hernandez, he went up against Diego Ferreira and ended up getting the victory in the fight by a punch to the head while on the ground in round 2. Ferreira connected on 100% of his significant strikes at distance and Hernandez ended up landing 66% of his significant strikes at distance. Hernandez ended up landing 40% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 30 of 75. He ended up landing 22 of 63 significant strikes aimed at the head. Ferreira connected on 23 of 98 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 8 of 56 aimed at the head. In regard to the strikes he fired off in this contest, Ferreira ended up landing 23 of 98 and Hernandez connected on 30 of 75 total strikes.
Other fights on the card to watch
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Davey Grant squares up against Adrian Luna Martinetti. Grant holds a career mark of 17-8-0. The 40-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 69". Luna Martinetti comes in at 5'8" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 17-1-0. The 30-year-old has a wingspan of 71". In the grappling category, Davey Grant takes his opponents to the mat 1.03 times per 15 minutes while Adrian Luna Martinetti takes his opponents down 3.00 times per 15 min. In the striking category, Grant tags his opponents 5.14 strikes/min and connects on 44% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is Adrian Luna Martinetti, who tags the opposition on 65% of the strikes he has tried and connects for an average of 11.00 per minute.
One more can't miss bout is when Raoni Barcelos is set to face off with Montel Jackson. Jackson comes into this bout with a mark of 15-3-0. The 33-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and stands 5'10". The southpaw fighter reaches 75". Barcelos stands 5'7" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout holding a record of 21-5-0. The 38-year-old has a reach of 67". In the category of takedowns, Montel Jackson is stopping 67% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is scoring a takedown on 63% of his tries. Barcelos is finishing his takedowns on 31% of his attempts and deflects 87% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the category of striking, Jackson is absorbing 1.40 strikes/min and he is connecting on 3.09 per min. Barcelos, notwithstanding, absorbs 4.40 strikes per min and deals 4.92 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Alexander Hernandez (-115)
Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here
Get all of Today's Free UFC Picks
Get all of Today's Expert UFC Picks
Most Recent UFC Picks
- Davey Grant vs Adrian Luna Martinetti Pick, 04/25/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 116 Odds
- Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards Pick, 04/25/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 116 Odds
- Mayra Bueno Silva vs Michelle Montague Pick, 04/25/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 116 Odds
- Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConico Pick, 04/25/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 116 Odds
- Max Griffin vs Victor Valenzuela Pick, 04/25/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 116 Odds
- Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal Pick, 04/25/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 116 Odds
- Jackson McVey vs Sedriques Dumas Pick, 04/25/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 116 Odds
- Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden Pick, 04/25/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 116 Odds
- Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan Spann Pick, 04/25/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 116 Odds
- Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez Pick, 04/25/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 116 Odds