Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds

Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco

UFC Mexico

Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Santiago Luna will take on Angel Pacheco at UFC Mexico on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The line has Luna priced at -450 while Pacheco is priced at +350.

Santiago "BorderBoy" Luna will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 7-0-0. The 21-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and stands in at 5' 9". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 74". Angel Pacheco stands 5' 8" and will fight at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 7-3-0. The 34-year-old extends his reach 70". Concerning significant strikes, Santiago Luna is connecting on 5.36 per min while Angel Pacheco is connecting on 9.50 significant strikes per min. Luna is connecting on 37% of the significant strikes he attempts while Pacheco lands 39%. When it comes to the fighter's defense, "BorderBoy" absorbs 4.29 significant strikes per minute and Pacheco absorbs 11.47. Luna also prevents 50% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Pacheco deflects 41% of them.

When it comes to wrestling, Santiago Luna is the more skilled wrestler as he is able to score a takedown 0.60 times per 3 rounds. Luna is getting his opponent to the mat on 15% of his tries and is stuffing 85% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Pacheco is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of the takedowns he attempts and is stopping 28% of all takedowns attempted on him. In terms of subbing opponents, Luna is less apt at going for the finish by attempting 0.3 submissions per 3 rds while Pacheco looks to get 0.8 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his previous fight, Santiago Luna faced Quang Le and wound up getting the win via a punch to the head while on the ground in round 1. Le landed 13 of 25 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Luna finished this fight landing 17 of 42 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Le ended up landing 12 of 24, giving him a percentage of 50%. He landed 9 of 19 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Luna landed 37% of his significant strikes by connecting on 15 of 40. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 13 of 38 aimed at the head. 83% of the significant strikes connected on by Le and 60% of them landed by Luna were done at distance.

In the last fight for Angel Pacheco, he fought Caolan Loughran and wound up walking away in defeat by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Loughran ended up connecting on 69% of his significant strikes at distance while Pacheco landed 90% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Pacheco ended up connecting on 37% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 88 of 234. He landed 44 of 180 significant strikes aimed at the head. Loughran ended up landing 140 of 268 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up connecting on 112 of 226 aimed at the head. In regard to total strikes attempted in that fight, Loughran connected on 148 of 286 and Pacheco ended up connecting on 95 of 241 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Ryan Gandra squares up against Jose Daniel Medina. Gandra steps into the cage holding a mark of 8-1-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and stands 6' 1". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 74". Daniel Medina stands 6' 0" and weighs 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 11-6-0. The 34-year-old has a reach of 74". When it comes to grappling, Ryan Gandra gets his opposition to the mat 0.70 times per 15 minutes and Jose Daniel Medina takes his opponents to the canvas 0.40 times per 3 rds. When talking about striking, Gandra lands 11.23 strikes/min and connects on 51% of the strikes that he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Jose Daniel Medina, who connects on 36% of the strikes he has attempted and lands 2.16 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Kris Moutinho is set to go up against Cristian Quinonez. Quinonez holds a career mark of 18-5-0. The 29-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and comes in at 5' 8". The orthodox fighter stretches 70". Moutinho stands in at 5' 7" and will fight at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter comes into this fight holding a mark of 14-7-0. The 33-year-old extends his reach 68". In terms of grappling, Cristian Quinonez thwarts 84% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is finishing his takedowns on 37% of his tries. Moutinho is taking his opponents down on 15% of his tries and is able to stop 15% of all takedown attempts. In the matter of striking, Quinonez absorbs 4.55 strikes/min and he lands 4.19 per minute. Moutinho, on the other hand, is absorbing 14.68 strikes/min and is dealing 4.51 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Angel Pacheco (+350)

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