Baseball Predictions: Phillies at Mets Odds and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 8/28/2013
Let me first say that I don't let my bias get in the way of my recommendations, but I pretty much despise all the New York sports teams, so it's been a rather entertaining week for me. Especially fun was watching Rex Ryan all but fire himself with the way he handled the Mark Sanchez situation in the preseason game against the Giants. Ryan wanted to WIN!!?? the game so he put Sanchez in the fourth quarter behind a backup offensive line? Of course he got hurt. Then Ryan put on a bizarre press conference afterward.
So while I enjoyed the heck out of that, I was disappointed in the news Monday that young Mets star pitcher Matt Harvey, the NL All-Star Game starter this year, is done for the season with a torn ligament in his pitching elbow. The team isn't saying he will need Tommy John surgery, but it seems a foregone conclusion. Harvey is second in the majors in ERA, third in WHIP and fourth in strikeouts this season. This news means no Harvey for pretty much all of next year, and that's a shame because the guy is a special talent and flat-out nasty. Hopefully he can come back the way Stephen Strasburg has. He was diagnosed with a similar injury almost the exact point of the 2010 season, had surgery in early September, and was back in the majors for a few starts at the end of 2011 and an all-star in 2012. He's been good this year as well, although his record doesn't show it because the Nats stink on offense.
I think this news devastates the Mets and would highly recommend betting against them the rest of the season. The team might have been a wild-card contender next year around Harvey with a few additions, but now you can forget that until 2015. That simply has to let the air out of everyone's balloons in the clubhouse.
In addition, the Mets are likely to make a trade or two before the Aug. 31 deadline to where players can still be included on a postseason roster. Reports out of New York is there is a "high degree of possibility" that the Mets make at least one deal. The most likely to go is outfielder Marlon Byrd. He has apparently been claimed by an unknown National League team on waivers, so the Mets are limited to only trading Byrd there, letting him go (he's only owed $130,000 rest of way) or pulling him back. Byrd would be a terrific addition to any contender needing outfield or DH help. He's hitting .285 with 21 home runs and 71 RBI entering Tuesday. It would be an upset if Byrd isn't traded. My guess is the Reds claimed him as it allows them to not only improve themselves but block a move to Pittsburgh or St. Louis.
Phillies at Mets Betting Story Lines
The Mets have lost five straight entering Tuesday's Game 2 of this series with the Phillies. On Wednesday, New York starts retread Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-1, 9.00). He was roughed up in his first start with the Mets, allowing five runs -- two homers -- over five innings in a loss to Detroit. The Mets signed Dice-K after the Indians cut him from the minors. Not many Phillies have seen the long-time Red Sox right-hander. Michael Young is 8-for-14 with a homer off him. Jimmy Rollins is 0-3 against him. It's likely that Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown sits out Wednesday or is limited to pinch-hitting again. That's what he's been limited to in his past few games entering Tuesday with an Achilles' injury. Brown is having a breakout season with a .275 average, 27 home runs and 80 RBI.
The Phillies start lefty Cole Hamels (5-13, 3.62) in Game 3. He's tied for the NL lead in losses, but as you can tell by his ERA, he hasn't been pitching all that badly. Hamels has had six straight quality starts, and the Phils have won his last three. His last non-quality start was July 20 at the Mets when he allowed four runs and seven hits in five innings. Hamels is 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA this year against New York in three starts. David Wright kills Hamels, but he remains on the DL, although he says he hopes to return this season (really no reason to). Eric Young Jr. is 6-for-14 with two RBI off Hamels. Daniel Murphy is 8-for-28 with a homer and four RBI. John Buck, who is another trade possibility, is 2-for-25 off Hamels. Both hits are homers.
Phillies at Mets MLB Betting Odds and Trends
At BetOnline, Philadelphia opened at -147 and New York at +137 with a total of 7.5. All trends entering Tuesday: the Phils are 66-61-4 “over/under” (32-33 on the road) and 57-74 on the runline. The Mets are 64-59-6 O/U (30-32-1 at home) and 66-63 on the runline.
The Phillies are 5-1 in their past six against righty starters. They are 4-1 in Hamels' past five starts during Game 3 of a series. Philadelphia is 3-7 in Hamels' past 10 road starts and 1-5 in his past six against teams with a losing record. The Mets are 2-7 in their past nine Game 3s. They are 0-7 in their past seven against lefty starters. The under is 5-0-1 in Hamels' past six starts. The under is 4-1 in New York's past five at home against lefty starters.
Baseball Predictions: Phillies at Mets Betting Picks
Philadelphia has won just two of its past 15 road games entering Tuesday but also has outscored the Mets 52-28 in the past 10 at Citi Field. The Phils have been playing much better of late under interim manger Ryne Sandberg, while the Mets look dead in the water. Go Philadelphia and the over.
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