by Mike Hayes - 07/03/2006
A review of the home and away performances of teams through the first half of the MLB season shows some interesting and potentially profitable trends led by the Jeckyll and Hyde Twins who are far-and-away the most profitable home wager and among the biggest cash burners on the road.
A $100 moneyline wager on the Twins in each of their 40 home games has yielded a profit of $2,077, thanks to a 30-10 mark, but a 15-25 record away from the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome has resulted in a loss of $868 -- third worst in all of baseball.
A bet on the Twins at home has been so good in fact that it has been the third most profitable wager of any kind. The most profitable wager remains the Tigers on moneyline, where they are plus $2,750. Detroit on the runline, where they have been good for a profit of $2,383 through 82 games, has been the second most profitable wager to date.
The Twins have used their home dominance to get back into playoff contention. Their last loss at home came on June 10 against Baltimore, when they fell to 27-34 on the season. Since then, the Twins have won 18-of-19, including their last 10 entering Monday's game against Kansas City. Of the 18 wins, 13 have come at home, including nine home wins during the current streak.
What remains to be seen as the second half of the season unfolds is whether the Twins resurgence is attributable to the comforts of home or whether it is simply coincidence that they are peaking during a period of the schedule that had them home for 14 of 20 games. Prior to the recent streak they were a solid 17-9 at home and a miserable 10-24 on the road.
Rounding out the top five teams at home in terms of profitability are the White Sox, 29-11, plus $1,271; Red Sox, 27-10, $1,332; Tigers, 26-14, $872; and Blue Jays, 29-17, plus $816.
Notice something missing here? How about the National League? In fact, just four teams in the senior circuit have been good for a profit at home, two of which are just barely in the black. The Brewers are tops at 25-17, plus $544, ahead of the Dodgers at 23-16, plus $387, Mets, 22-15, plus $42 and Giants, 23-20, plus $24.
This no doubt has to do with the American League's total dominance in the recently concluded interleague play, which saw the AL roll to a 154-98 record, a winning percentage of .611. In fact, the White Sox, Red Sox, Tigers and Twins went a combined 61-11 against their National League counterparts.
The biggest home loser to date has been the Cubs, who are 14-25 at Wrigley and are at minus $1,537. They are followed by the 16-21 Braves, minus $1,275; 18-23 Phillies, minus $1,153; 19-23 Angels, minus $1,104; and 21-23 Rangers, minus $790.
A look at the road warriors shows the Tigers, with a 30-12 mark and a profit of $1,878, to be the best team to bet on away from home. This is no surprise as the Tigers continue to be a cash machine for backers under virtually all circumstances.
Behind the Tigers are the Reds, who at 24-16 have been good for a profit of $1,388. What's difficult to explain here is how the Reds have gone just 20-22 at home for a deficit of $762, a record that has made them one of the worst home bets in the National League.
The Diamondbacks at 21-19, plus $838, have shown the third best road profit ahead of the Rockies, plus $785, and Mets at plus $754.
The Pirates at 8-31 on the road are in a league by themselves at minus $2,070. The Bucs haven't been too bad at home, where they are 20-24 for a deficit of $277. The Indians have been baseball's second worst road bet at 17-24 for a deficit of $901, followed by the Twins at minus $868, Brewers, 15-26, minus $848, and Astros, 15-24, minus $805.
Three of baseball's worst teams have shown a profit at home. The Devil Rays are 18-17 at home for plus $350; the Orioles are 24-21, good for a profit of $166 and the Royals, in spite of a 15-20 record at home, have been good for a profit of $122.
The Cardinals and Yankees, both with home records of 26-17, have been money losers at home due to their usual status as heavy favorites. The Yankees are minus $444 in the "House that Ruth Built" while the Red Birds are minus $209 at Busch.
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