Betting on the MLB MVP
by Mike Hayes - 09/08/2006
With just three weeks remaining in the regular season, a strong case can be made for a number of candidates in both leagues to garner MVP honors. And with three weeks of games remaining there might be a chance to grab some value in wagering on who will take home the MVP hardware.
Here is a look at the candidates and their odds as released by Pinnacle Sportsbook this week.
Albert Pujols - 5/4
Pujols appeared to be a lock earlier this season but the MVP almost always comes from a playoff team and the Cardinals fade last month opened the door for some serious discussion about other candidates. With the Cards once again on their way to the playoffs, Pujols is the favorite but is no lock for the award and would be tough to bet at such a short price.
Ryan Howard - 7/5
You have to believe Howard is a lock for the award if the Phillies make the playoffs. Even if they don't, he has just as much chance as Pujols at winning considering his numbers are the best in all of baseball. At 7/5, this is a much more attractive price.
Carlos Beltran - 5/1
The best player on what is far and away the best team in the league is at a disadvantage because of the number of good players on the Mets, including fringe MVP candidates Jose Reyes and David Wright. His numbers compare favorably to Pujols, but he would probably have no chance against either the Cardinal or Phillie first baseman, but he does have a chance to come away with the award in a three-man race.
Field - 20/1
It is inconceivable that anyone other Pujols, Howard or Beltran will be named MVP.
Derek Jeter - 3/2
The Yankee captain might be the heart and soul of this team and that's the only reason he would win this because the numbers simply do not add up to MVP quality. With the race so wide open, you can get much better odds elsewhere. With three weeks to go in the season a lot can happen, as Vladimir Guerrero proved in winning the award last year.
David Ortiz - 2/1
As far as I'm concerned, Papi got screwed last year. Not voting for a guy because he is a DH is as ridiculous as the fact that Ray Guy isn't in the NFL Hall of Fame because all he did was punt. The DH is a part of the game and Ortiz is not only the best in the history of the game but one of the best clutch hitters of all-time. The fact is that if Papi were a lousy every day first baseman he would have won the award last year. The lack of any other real favorite this year made him look like a lock for much of the year, but the Red Sox slide and his missing some time of late have hurt his chances.
Justin Morneau - 12/1
A nice player, but as far as I'm concerned he's not the MVP of the Twins. Therefore, it would make it tough for me to bet on him in spite of the attractive price.
Jermaine Dye - 15/2
Based on the numbers you could make a case that Dye should be the favorite. If the White Sox make the playoffs he should be in the mix. Therefore, the price seems a bit generous and worth taking a shot.
Vladimir Guerrero - 12/1
If Vlad finishes the season like he did last year -- and leads the Angels to the postseason -- he would win the award. That is, of course, unlikely.
Field -- 24/1
This is a very intriguing proposition considering there is no clear-cut favorite. I believe it is entirely possible that the candidates listed above could end up slicing the vote up to the point that Johan Santana ends up as the MVP. It would be tough to complain if that did occur considering the Twins would be an afterthought at this point if not for Santana.
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