Ultimate Guide to Picks and Predictions
We have created the Ultimate Guide to Sports Betting Picks and Predictions. These simple to follow rules were put together by the best handicappers in the business from years of experience. Please read through and feel free to share with your friends and family
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Sports Betting Ultimate Guide
Have A Plan For Betting Responsibly
- The key to successful sports betting is money management!
- Set aside a budget or "bankroll".
- Your goal is to win. But never bet more than you can afford to lose.
- Your average bet should be 3-4% and never more than 7%
- Bet sober and clear minded.
- Don't tilt or chase after a bad loss; emotion is the enemy of profit.
- Have realistic expectations and set short-term and long-term goals for profit.
- Keep track of weekly and monthly results.
- A goal of 4 percent monthly growth would increase your bankroll by over 60 percent in just 12 months!
- Give yourself small rewards for reaching short- and long-term goals.
- Don't try to compare your bankroll or betting style with others. The best system you can use is the one that works for YOU.
Section #2:Understanding The Odds
- Every sportsbook offers different odds.
- The standard "juice" of 10% represents the house odds:
- Negative odds (-) represent the Favorite.
- -110 (10% Juice) = for every $110.00 you bet, if you win you get $100.00.
- Positive odds represent the Underdog.
- +110 = for every $100.00 you bet, if you win you get $110.00
- Point spreads.
- The favorite needs to beat its opponent by more than the posted spread. So a -7 favorite needs to win by eight or more points to "cover the spread".
- The underdog can win the game outright or lose by less than the posted spread. A +7 underdog can win the game or lose by six points or fewer to "cover the spread".
- Betting on the total means you are betting on the combined amount of points/runs/goals in a given game by both teams.
- You can bet 'Over' a total (you are wagering that more points/runs/goals will be scored, combined, in a game).
- You can bet 'Under' a total (you are wagering that fewer points/runs/goals will be scored, combined, in a game).
- The odds are not a prediction.
- Odds are a reflection of public perception and are an attempt by sportsbooks to balance the betting on both teams.
Section #3:Common Types Of Wagers
- Moneyline Bets
- Picking the team to win the game outright.
- Value is based on the odds/juice.
- Spread Bets
- Picking the team to win according to the spread.
- Most common form of wager.
- Totals Bets
- Betting on scoring to go 'Over' or 'Under'
- Combining multiple bets into one wager.
- Much higher payout odds but much lower probability of success.
- Generally a low-value way to bet and generally should be avoided.
- Many different types of parlays including Progressive and Multichance.
- Group of bets combined into one wager.
- Spread or total odds are moved (or "teased") in the bettors favor.
- Lower payout odds for the benefit of shifting odds.
- Generally a low-value long-term way to bet.
Section #4:Types of Handicapping
- Fundamental Handicapping
- One-on-one matchups
- Matching teams' strengths and weaknesses against one another.
- Example: Oakland's No. 30 pass defense is no match for Denver's No. 1 pass offense.
- The key is finding the most important and mathematically relevant statistics to use in each sport.
- Situational Handicapping
- Letdown Games: A game played after one of the teams has expelled a lot of emotional energy. It could be after a big upset win, a big rivalry game, a difficult defeat, or a high-profile nationally televised game.
- Look-Ahead Games: A game played right before a more important game. Teams in Look-Ahead Situations often don't focus or perform to expectations because their attention is on something else.
- Revenge Games: Games in which one team has an emotional advantage of wanting to avenge a blowout loss, a comeback loss, or a particularly difficult or embarrassing defeat in the most recent meeting.
- Rivalry Games: Underdogs typically overperform in games against their most hated rival.
- Technical Handicapping
- Study of statistical patterns.
- Sometimes referred to as "trend betting"
- Examples: The Giants are 38-12 ATS as a home underdog. The Bears are 20-6 ATS following a loss of 14 points or more.
Remember: trends are useful. But past results are never a perfect predictor of future events