College Football Highlights, Week 12
by Joshua Fairbanks - 11/21/2006 - 11/21/2006
Each week of the season Doc's Sports will look at some of the most important college football highlights that took place over the previous weekend. This is where to look to find out who covered in the big games, where the important line moved occurred as well as which teams were hot against the total.
Minnesota Defeats Iowa Saturday, 34-24.
Iowa continued to show college fans this week that they are a team that has given up. Iowa started the season as hot as can be only to sizzle out in the end. Minnesota has had the opposite effect. The Gophers started 2-5 only to finish a strong 4-1. Over the last five weeks Minnesota is a strong 4-1 against the spread. The only strong play that Iowa has is to play against them. Although Iowa is a .500 team, they are a pitiful 1-10 ATS.
Purdue Defeats Indiana Saturday, 28-19.
This game had lines that kept inflating all week. Indiana opened as a 10 point underdog this week. By Saturday, the Hoosiers were nearly a two touchdown dog. The "total' was also a very inflated number. Saturday showed the 'total' at about 60. Sport books must have figured that these two evenly matched teams would have an old fashioned shoot out. If a score-fest was the case, why was the line two touchdowns? To me, the sport books had this game all wrong.
Penn State Defeats Michigan State Saturday, 17-13.
Joey Pa's Nittany Lions came into this big ten game as a strong favorite. The line opened up favoring Penn State at around 17. By week close, we were at about 19 points laid down for Penn to cover. Last week Penn State shut out a bad Temple team and expected to roll this week. Michigan State put a 10 spot in the 1st quarter making the spread look foolish. There was no way Drew Stanton was going to end his college career by getting blown out and he played his heart out. I don't really blame sport books for this line. I mean Michigan was 0-8 ATS coming into this week.
No. 6 Arkansas defeats Mississippi State 28-14.
This match up had the chance of upset written all over it. With Arkansas playing some tough teams coming up, some thought that a crafty Mississippi State team could really scare Arkansas. I found the line of Arkansas by 14.5 a number you can really exploit. Although Arkansas is 10-1, they are a surprising 4-7 ATS. In retrospect, the Bulldogs are 2-0 ATS in the last two weeks as 2 touchdown underdogs or worse. Mississippi is 6-2 since week three covering the 'total.' Next week the Bulldogs travel to Mississippi and I expect to see the over yet again.
No. 1 Ohio State Defeats No. 2 Michigan Saturday, 42-39.
From my past experience games like this always have one strong play. The 'total'. The 'over/under' moved up and up this week but it really didn't matter. It topped off at a meager 41 points. Ohio State covered this line alone. The spread was also something that sport books had to feel out. The line opened at Ohio by 6.5 and there was a strong play on the Buckeyes. By mid week the line was at 7. This evened out the playing field and the consensus evened out. Personally, I thought the line was still inflated. Ohio State should have been -3.5 at best. The Buckeyes were 8-2 ATS coming into this week. Maybe that's why they were seven point favorites against the No. 2 Michigan.
No. 15 Auburn Defeats Alabama Saturday, 22-15.
The disappointing Auburn Tigers showed true heart this week by winning their 5th in a row against Alabama. Auburn jumped out to a strong lead and all Alabama could do is chase them the whole game. Like most of the season showed, Bama is not a strong team. When Alabama wins, they are only 2-4 ATS. This was one of the first weeks that Auburn was a favorite by a reasonable amount and they really showed they can win. Of course, maybe Alabama would have done better if they didn't go for 2 after every TD.