A Deeper Look - Scouting The Mid-Majors (Free Picks Inside)
by Strike Point Sports - 10/03/2007
Back by popular demand, this season it will be a bit different. Each week we'll delve into some of college football's smaller conferences and focus and breakdown more obscure match-up that are off the radar for most beyond the Top 25. Here's what we have going on this week:
Nevada -3.5 over Fresno State - Saturday, 4:00 pm EST
A solid matchup here by WAC middlemen, and I look for the Wolfpack to get the home cover over a Fresno State team that has struggled outside of California. Nevada has won both its home games, while the Bulldogs are 0-2 on the road this season and have allowed 97 points in those games, albeit to Oregon and Texas A&M.
Fresno is just 1-8 ATS in their last nine as a road underdog, while Nevada has done well inside conference play, going 13-3 ATS in the last 16 WAC games. In a game where a lot of points are possible, we'll side with the more consistent team.
Prediction: Nevada 34, Fresno State 27
Army -7 over Tulane - Saturday, 7 pm EST
The Green Wave came out and played well in their Superdome home matchup against intrastate rival LSU. That was understandable, as Tulane got hyped to play a team they know well. On the road against a more obscure Army team, we don't see a repeat performance.
Don't look now, but the Black Knights have been a solid moneymaker so far this year, covering their last three games including match-ups at Boston College and at Wake Forest.
Before that cover last weekend against the Bayou Bengals, Tulane had failed to make good with their number in their last six games, losing five of them straight up. The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and it will be Army that takes care of business this weekend.
Prediction: Army 31, Tulane 21
Air Force -5.5 over UNLV - Saturday, 9:00 pm EST
UNLV has played quite competitively at home, but now they are playing on the road in the MWC and look for Air Force to make a strong statement here. The Rebels are just 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games, and the Falcons will look to get some revenge for last year's close loss to Vegas.
Air Force has still gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and they continue to produce as one of the nation's top rushing attacks with over 225 yards per game.
Look for a big game from dual threat quarterback Shaun Carney, who is throwing more this season. The senior will guide his team to a nice home victory in this match-up.
Prediction: Air Force 28, UNLV 20