Top NFL Totals Predictions For Week 8
by Gary Patrick Garry - 10/24/2007
Philadelphia at Minnesota
Total: 37.5 (Courtesy of Bodog)
The Minnesota Vikings will play host to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday in a matchup between two teams who need a victory to keep their waning playoff hopes alive.
The Eagles lost a heartbreaker last week when Brian Griese engineered a game-winning, 97-yard drive that was culminated by a 15-yard touchdown pass to Muhsin Muhammad with just nine seconds left on the clock. In Dallas, the Vikings led the Cowboys 14-7 at the half, but their offense sputtered and Dallas came away with a 24-14 victory.
The Eagles offense has been ineffective all season except for the 56 point outburst against the Lions. If you exclude that game as a statistical anomaly, Philly is averaging 10 points per game. Defensively, the Eagles have allowed 13.7 ppg while playing away from home, limiting opponents to just 231.3 yards of total offense. They have stayed under in four of their five games this year, including their last three outings.
The Vikings are 2-4 over for the year. When they play at home, Minny is scoring 20 ppg and allowing 13. The Minnesota defense is allowing 71 ypg on the ground when playing hosts while limiting opposing rushers to just three yards per carry.
The last two meetings between these teams have stayed under the total, and I expect this one to make it three in a row.
The pick is Under 37.5.
Washington at New England
Total: 47.5 (Courtesy of BetCRIS)
The Redskins will head up to Foxboro on Sunday to take on the unenviable task of attempting to slow down the juggernaut that is the New England Patriots' offense.
Six of New England's seven games this season have soared over the total, including last week when they combined with the Miami Dolphins to put 77 points on the scoreboard. The Pats have tallied at least 34 points in every game this season, and they have scored 97 points in their last two games.
Conversely, the Redskins have played five of their six games under the posted total. They are averaging 23 ppg offensively over their last three games, and their defense has allowed 14.7 ppg overall this year.
The Redskins beat the Cardinals last week and the total points scored was 40. I think that this matchup will generate considerably more offense than that one. Until somebody prevents the Patriots from putting up these kinds of offensive numbers, I have to assume that it can't be done.
The pick is Over 47.5.
Green Bay at Denver
Total: 41.5 (Courtesy of WSEX)
Brett Favre leads the Green Bay Packers into the thin air of The Rockies on Monday night to face Mike Shanahan's resurgent Denver Broncos.
Handicappers don't have crystal balls. But we do have statistics, thanks to Doc's Sports matchup page. The Broncos have played five of their six games over the total this season, and 10 of their last 11. Nine consecutive Denver home games have gone over the total. The Broncos defense is allowing 28 ppg when they play at home and 35.7 ppg over their last three contests.
Green Bay is 4-2 over for the year, and both of their road games to date have eclipsed the total. The Packers are averaging 29 ppg when they play away from home. The Green Bay defense has allowed 19 ppg over their last three.
The propensity Denver has shown to play games over the total, especially at home, is as powerful a trend as I have seen in football this year. I will ride the nine-game home over streak and expect that the trend continues.
The play is over 41.5.