Top NFL Totals Predictions For Week 9
by Gary Patrick Garry - 10/31/2007
Cincinnati at Buffalo
The Bengals take on the Bills in Buffalo on Sunday, and the first thing that pops out at me is that nobody has scored less than 20 points in any game against the Bengals all season, and they are allowing 30.1 points per game overall and 34 ppg on the road. The second thing that pops out at me is that the Bills are scoring just 13.9 ppg for the season, and averaging an anemic 246 yards of total offense per contest.
Buffalo is 5-2 under for the year, and they have played great defense at home, limiting the opposition to 17 ppg; but teams have moved the ball against them, averaging 377.2 total yards and 4.5 yards per rush.
The Bills have played the Jets twice, and the total points scored was 47. That's both games combined. Cincy played the Jets a couple of weeks ago, and they lit it up for 69 total points between them. The last three meetings between these clubs have exceeded the total.
I think that the statistics suggest that the Bengals defense makes any offense a good one.
The play here is over 43.
Cleveland at Seattle
I admit it. I like to bet streaks. There are people who like to say that if something keeps happening over and over again, that means that it can't keep happening. I think the other way.
The Browns have played seven games this year, and they are 6-0-1 over. They are averaging 31.5 ppg at home this season, and they are allowing 30.8.
Seattle has struggled at times offensively, but they scored 33 against the Rams a couple of weeks ago and had a bye week to prepare for the porous Cleveland defense. The Browns are allowing 141 rushing yards per game. If Seattle can establish the run early, it will set up the passing game and they will put some points on the board like just about everyone else has against the Cleveland Browns this year.
I like this game over 46.5.
Arizona at Tampa Bay
The Cardinals have Kurt Warner back at the helm and he's had an extra week to heal as he leads Arizona into Tampa to take on the Buccaneers.
Tampa's vaunted defense has shown itself to be penetrable the last few weeks, allowing 90 points over their last four games. That's not horrendous, but we're talking about totals in the 30s here. Tampa's offense is averaging 22.8 ppg at home behind Jeff Garcia, and they are throwing for 226.5 yards per game and 8.2 yards per pass when playing hosts.
The Cardinals are averaging 23.2 ppg while traveling, and they are allowing 24.5 ppg as the visitor. They are 4-3 over for the season and 3-1 over on the road.
My pick for this game is over 37.5.
Green Bay at Kansas City
Both of these teams are playing close to the vest right now. The Packers won at Denver on Monday Night 19-13 in overtime and they seemed intent on using every second of the play clock on every play (or did it just seem that way because I played the over?). Anyway, Favre seemed frightened to throw the ball more than 10 yards in the air until the overtime game winner. Defensively, they have held their last two opponents to a combined 27 points.
Kansas City is 5-2 under this season. They are scoring 14.6 ppg, and they are allowing 16.1 ppg. The Chiefs are 12-4 under in their last 16 outings. The Pack is rushing for 78 ypg on the road, and Kansas City is gaining just 60.3 ypg on the ground when playing at home.
I'm playing this game under 38.