Odds on the Patriots Undefeated Season: Any Value?
by Jason Shimberg - 11/01/2007
BetUS has released some props for winless and undefeated teams this season and many of them will hinge on this week's mega-matchup between New England and Indianapolis. The most intriguing of these bets has to do with the odds on the Patriots going undefeated.
They Pats are currently listed at +185 to go undefeated for the regular season. If you think they will win this week you should grab that bet now because the odds will be worse for the bettor next week if they get a road win at Indy on Sunday.
The Patriots are five-point favorites this weekend and the 1972 Dolphins will be cracking one bottle of champagne because one of these teams will come out of this battle with one blemish on their record. These are obviously the two best teams in the league and as much as I would like to ride the fence and predict a tie, I don't think either team is going to shut down the other team's Hall of Fame quarterback in fifteen minutes of overtime. Recent history suggests the game will be close. In last year's AFC Championship Game, the final score was 38-34. The Colts routinely have started fast out of the gate (winning their first seven games each of the last three years) and stumbled in weeks leading up to the playoffs. If you are looking to bet on the overall record for either team, now is the time to do it, as this week's outcome will affect the odds in a myriad of ways. It could build momentum for one team, and hinder the other.
Here are some of the other props BetUS has released for undefeated and winless seasons:
New England to go 16-0, +185: The odds will be worse if they win this weekend. If you like them to beat Indy and want to bet this, take it now while you have a number that will let you almost triple your initial investment. These odds have already dropped from +200 early in the week.
Miami to go 0-16, +350: Stranger things have happened, and they would hold both ends of single-season records, as they also hold the record for the only team to go an entire season undefeated at 14-0. In all seriousness, don't consider this play, out of their eight games, half of them were decided by 3 points. I think it is harder for a team to go winless than it is for a team to go undefeated. These are professional athletes and pride alone will get them at least one win.
NE win Super Bowl, Even: About 50/50. What haven't you been impressed with? They are winning, and winning at a rate more impressive than any other team in history. This one is worth considering although the odds are low. However, it will be much better than the money line odds that will be offered if the Pats do make the big game. I equate this bet to Tiger Woods vs. the field.
NE to miss the playoffs, +250000: The Patriots have murdered the lesser competition winning by an average of 25.5 points. There have been other collapses of epic proportions (reference the 2007 New York Mets) but this one has "sucker bet" written all over it. However, if there were a few key injuries any team could struggle so at these odds it might warrant a 10-spot, especially if you love to hate the Patriots.
Miami makes the playoffs, +250000: I look for them to go 2-14. The Miami basketball team should make the playoffs, but the football sharks better wait for the return of Ricky Williams. This one would take a miracle.