Early Look at Wildcard Weekend
by Robert Ferringo - 01/02/2007
(This is an excerpt of an article that appears in the current addition of Every Edge Magazine)
Here's a thumbnail sketch of this weekend's action:
Kansas City (+6.5) at Indianapolis (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 6)
The Chiefs will cover because: The Colts can't play any defense and Kansas City can. Larry Johnson may run for 500 yards against the Colts and no matter which quarterback is under center Kansas City should be able to score some points. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record and the Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This line will hit a touchdown by Wednesday.
The Colts will cover because: Herm Edwards will clam up and do something foolish that puts his team in a hole. Also, Indianapolis will have the best player on the field in Peyton Manning. Kansas City is just 3-5 ATS on the road this season and the Colts won their last two Wild Card Round games by an average of 28 points.
Dallas (+3) at Seattle (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 6)
The Cowboys will cover because: They have a strong chance of winning outright. I think the home loss to Detroit was the rock bottom that this team needed and Big Bill will whip this team back into shape this week. Also, Seattle is just 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine against the NFC.
The Seahawks will cover because: Of the 12th Man. I know I said to ignore the home field edge, but Seattle has proven that their advantage is legit. They were only 9-7 this season but this is the healthiest they've been all year. Dallas has been a calamity over the past month while losing three of their last four games by an average of 16.3 points. The Boys are just 3-5-1 ATS against teams .500 or better.
New York Jets (+9.5) over New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 7)
The Jets will cover because: The road team is 14-3-1 ATS in this series and the Pats are a pedestrian 4-4 ATS in their last three postseasons. Eric Mangini knows his old team very well and will have another outstanding game plan. I expect this line to get to 10.5 by kickoff, which would provide value on New York.
The Patriots will cover because: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The Jets are a cute story, but they're going up against trained assassins. The Pats are 8-2 ATS against the Jets recently.
New York Giants (+6.5) at Philadelphia (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 7)
The Giants will cover because: They're amazingly unpredictable. No one expects much out of the Giants and this line will get over a touchdown. New York has already showed they can go into Philly and win outright and is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 contests after scoring 30 points the previous week.
The Eagles will cover because: The G-Men are the shell of the team they were when these clubs met at The Link early this year. Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games and is playing better than just about every other team in the league right now. Also, the Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against New York.
Carpe diem, my friend. And good luck.
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