College Football Power Rankings - The Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 11/13/2008
Well, the books finally caught up to us. It only took them about 10 weeks to figure it out. But when they did, they did so with impunity. The Ferringo 15 went just 3-11 last week, its worst week in two years. I suppose I could have shaken things up a bit, but you dance with the one you brung, and we had hit 65 percent for 10 weeks prior to that so I can't complain.
My Ferringo 15 is now 63-43-2 on the season, good for a steady 59.4 percent success rate. I really don't have any predictions for how our boys will perform this week. But I will say that the full-season numbers speak for themselves. So without further ado, here is our Ferringo 15 college football power rankings (all records are ATS):
1) Oklahoma State (8-1) - Despite their loss in Lubbock, this is still the No. 1 earner in the country and I still think that they can close with a pair of wins and be a BCS player. I do know that I don't want any part of them this week. They're caught in a let down-look ahead situation coming off a marquee game against T-Tech and with their Bedlam game in two weeks.
2) TCU (7-2) - TCU's BCS hopes have been dashed, but that still doesn't mean that this team is done kicking ass. They have a bye week to regroup and purge last week's heartbreaker at Utah. But I know that I wouldn't want to be some shaky BCS team (hello, Pitt) and have to face the Frogs in a significant bowl game.
3) Louisiana-Lafayette (7-2) - The Ragin' Cajuns have a very tricky game this week at Florida Atlantic, and I don't like the fact that they didn't just lose at home to UTEP - they got worked over. This team won't hold onto that loss very long because it wasn't a league 'L' and won't impact their bowl prospects. But they are the top team in the Sun Belt and are now road favorites against the team that, coming into the season, was supposed to be the top dog.
4) California (7-2) - Great cover by the Golden Bears last week against USC. I detailed last week how their QB situation was actually a good thing for Bears backers, and last week was the perfect execution of it. The road team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings between Cal and Oregon State. Cal is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games after facing USC.
5) Florida (7-2) - The Gators are the team that everyone forgot when it came to potential BCS title teams. All they've done is outscore their opponents 243-57 while covering five straight games. That's serious work. It will be interesting to see if the Gamecocks can get UF involved in a grinder or if it will be another blowout.
6) Georgia Tech (6-2) - North Carolina did control their game with Tech last week, but I wouldn't be quick to jump off the Jackets. They lost their quarterback at halftime and a few late scores made the score look a lot worse than it actually was.
7) Boise State (5-2-1) - Execution, execution, execution. I was looking for a down year out of the Broncos this year but it has been anything but. They've won four of their nine games by 35 or more points, but they still have two teams - Nevada and Fresno State - left on the schedule that can beat them and shatter their BCS dreams. I think that's exactly what happens.
8) Florida State (4-2-1) - Here they come. It's always tough to find value on the Seminoles because they are still a "name" program. But FSU is a very veteran, senior-laden squad that is really making a late push for the ACC Title. At the start of the year they were my selection to come out of this conference and I'll be looking to ride their stellar defense for the next month.
9) Penn State (6-2-1) - Wow. That's all I can say about the Lions' late collapse at Iowa last week. Daryll Clark was just 9-for-23 and for the first time all year the Lions subdued to pressure placed by an opponent's front seven. I know I won't be betting against them, but that loss has to rattle a team that had national title dreams.
10) Tulsa (6-2) - The Golden Hurricane have a very dangerous game at Houston this week. The Cougars have won two of the last three meetings and Houston is one of the few teams in the conference that can keep up with Tulsa's aerial assault. Also, Houston's last three losses have all come by less than four points.
11) North Carolina State (6-2) - This is definitely a team to watch for 2009. They have been hit with as many crippling injuries as any club in the country, but Tom O'Brien has them playing tough, has them playing rugged, and has them covering spreads. That's the first sign of an improving team.
12) Ball State (7-2) - Ball State won its second straight game on national television. But they didn't cover against Miami, OH and I think that their value is tapped out. Hell, even Dave Letterman is pimping his alma mater on late night. These spreads are going to get too thick for the Cardinals, who close the year with two games against the No. 2 and No. 3 teams in the MAC. Forget BCS bowl - there is a chance this team doesn't make it to their conference title game.
13) Air Force (7-2) - The Falcons do not fare well against BYU, this week's opponent. They have gotten rocked four straight years, losing by an average of 20.5 points per game and being outgained by an average of 182 yards per game.
14) Texas (7-3) - The line on the Longhorns' game this week is dropping despite the fact that they are taking three of every four bets on the game. I am not scared of Kansas at all. They have lost three of four to the only decent teams that they have played, dumping those games by an average of over three touchdowns.
15) Florida International (6-2-1) - Just another win and another cover for a team that is quietly having a very strong year. A week off for the Panthers, who are gunning for their first winning record since being a D-I program.
Others Receiving Votes: Oklahoma (7-2), Iowa (6-3), Texas Tech (5-2-1), Alabama (6-3), Arizona (6-3)
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings, a ladder or hierarchy based on which teams are the most profitable on the field. I'm not trying to give you some other nonsensical, random, speculative power rankings based on my own biases and conjecture. So instead of Ohio State moving up or down the polls on the basis of how badly they blew out Northwestern the previous Saturday, I'm going to rank each team based on past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread.
This is not a ranking of the 15 top teams to bet in any given week. This is an overall overview and ranking of the teams that have been the most profitable throughout the season. That said, last year the teams that were listed in my Ferringo 15 every Wednesday covered the spread that weekend at a 56-percent success rate, making the F-15 a pretty solid system in and of itself. Also, in 2007 the teams that ended the season in the Ferringo 15 finished an astonishing 121-46 ATS, good for a 73-percent success rate and nearly $70,000 for dime bettors.