College Football Power Rankings - The Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 11/24/2008
After two straight Salvation Army weeks - that's non-profit, for those who weren't sure - the Ferringo 15 bounced back with a solid 6-3-1 ATS performance. That solid performance was made that much sweeter because we had winners in some of the marquee rivalry games of the weekend, including North Carolina State taking down North Carolina, Cal thumping Stanford, and Penn State destroying Michigan State.
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For the season that runs the overall record of the Ferringo 15 to 73-54-3. That is a 57.5 percent success rate for the entire year and that, my friends, is outstanding. Dime bettors who had been rolling with us for the entire season would have been up nearly $14,000 and this weekend wraps up the Ferringo 15's second consecutive winning season.
So without further ado, here is our Week 13 Ferringo 15 Profit-Power Rankings:
1) Oklahoma State (8-2) - In some ways this weekend's Bedlam Series reminds me of last year's Cocktail Party game between Georgia and Florida. The Bulldogs, much like the Cowboys this year, had two weeks to prepare for an opponent that was coming off a very emotional clash the week before. Oklahoma State has lost the last three Bedlam games against the spread, but they are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Stillwater.
2) Florida (8-2) - Dating back to the 2006 SEC Championship Game the Gators are a stellar 18-6 against the spread. And they haven't been beating people - they've been wrecking them. I will say that I'm not a fan at all of playing a "scrimmage" like the Gators had last week against Citadel. I do think that they will lose their edge, to a certain extent. Florida is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with the Seminoles, but they are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven in Tallahassee.
3) Oregon State (8-2) - The stakes couldn't be higher for the Beavers this weekend in the Civil War. With a win, Oregon State will be playing the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1965. If they lose, they will likely end up getting worked over by a more motivated club in some second-rate bowl. And, much like the FU-FSU and OU-Ok. State games, the underdog will have had two weeks to prepare. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against the Ducks.
4) North Carolina State (8-2) - I've just been killing myself all weekend for not getting on the Wolfpack. They are one of those teams that I know are a cash cow but that I just can't get over my initial impressions of how bad they were. Last year Pitt and Michigan State both had winning ATS marks despite being in the bottom third of their conference, and the two teams have come back to go a combined 16-6 this year.
5) Georgia Tech (7-2) - It will be interesting to see how focused the Jackets are when they head to Athens to face rival Georgia. This is a HUGE regional game, but the Yellowjackets have a shot to go to the ACC Title game if Virginia can beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. That VT game will be going on at the same time as the GT game and I wonder if there will be some scoreboard watching.
6) Oklahoma (8-2) - Letdowns have been a very consistent theme in the Big 12 this year. Texas hammered Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but they lost when they got out of the bubble and went to Texas Tech. Texas Tech beat the Longhorns and hammered Oklahoma State, but they lost when they got out of the bubble and went to Oklahoma. Now the Sooners are coming off a peak performance in THE game of the weekend.
7) Alabama (8-3) - Mike Shula was fired because he couldn't beat Auburn (among other reasons). This week, Alabama is going to beat Auburn. They've had two weeks to prepare and everything to play for. But I do think that how they win will be an indicator into how to play them in the SEC Title Game. A blowout or a loss and I think I like Florida. If they play a tight, or at least competitive, game and win against the Tigers then I think they could be a solid play against Florida.
8) Texas (8-3) - I don't think it's going to be hard for the Longhorns to get up for Texas A&M this week. Knowing that their BCS life hangs in a balance, and with everyone suddenly heaping praise on the team that they crushed at Red River, I think this team will be sufficiently motivated.
9) Ball State (8-2) - "Man, did the Cardinals pick the wrong year to go undefeated". I heard a commentator say that last weekend. And on the one hand he's got a point. But I don't think we should take it for granted that Ball State is going to beat Western Michigan (the preseason favorite) and then beat Buffalo (the Cinderella) in the MAC title game. I know I wouldn't mess with this team though - not with the way that the chalk has come through this year.
10) California (8-3) - Will Cal beat Washington by 100 points? That is really the only intrigue in this game. I also really have questions about why they are waiting until Dec. 6 to play this game. I wonder if a shorter layoff time will give Cal an edge in a bowl game since they will be playing before Jan. 1.
11) TCU (8-3) - This team's only two losses were at Oklahoma (by 25) and at Utah (by three). I honestly and truly believe that they would have owned the Big East if they had played in that conference, and they would have been in the top three or four in the Big Ten.
12) Penn State (7-3-1) - Right now it looks like the Nittany Lions could have a rematch with Oregon State in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. If that is the case I'm looking for the same result as the first game. If you remember, that was the first game of the suspensions for three starting defensive players for the Lions. My question is how Joe Pa will keep his team from picking up the rust that comes with not playing for seven weeks.
13) Mississippi (7-3) - The Rebels were my preseason No. 1 team on the Ferringo 15 and I would say that they more than lived up to the billing. They should tattoo Mississippi State in a revenge game from last year. The Rebels are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six against the Bulldogs and 3-0-1 ATS at home against them.
14) Buffalo (7-3) - How about the Cardiac Kids! Buffalo has now played in four overtime games this year and they are 3-1 in them. And that doesn't even count the 30-28 win the Bulls had over Temple in which they scored on a 35-yard touchdown on the last play of the game. You have to give them credit: this team just finds ways to win.
15) Boise State (6-3-2) - Ho-hum. I've counted Boise State's 41-34 win over Nevada as a 'push' for our records because the line hovered around 7.0 all week. Some got it at 6.5, some got it at 7.5, and most got it at 7.0. They do have a somewhat tricky game this week against capable Fresno State. But it's on the Smurf Turf and the Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings, a ladder or hierarchy based on which teams are the most profitable on the field. I'm not trying to give you some other nonsensical, random, speculative power rankings based on my own biases and conjecture. So instead of Ohio State moving up or down the polls on the basis of how badly they blew out Northwestern the previous Saturday, I'm going to rank each team based on past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread.
This is not a ranking of the 15 top teams to bet in any given week. This is an overall overview and ranking of the teams that have been the most profitable throughout the season. That said, last year the teams that were listed in my Ferringo 15 every Wednesday covered the spread that weekend at a 56-percent success rate, making the F-15 a pretty solid system in and of itself. Also, in 2007 the teams that ended the season in the Ferringo 15 finished an astonishing 121-46 ATS, good for a 73-percent success rate and nearly $70,000 for dime bettors.