Doc's Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 11/7/2009


It was a good weekend for the Public Action  Report. The line movement pointed us at four winners in seven tries including  two nice upset wins in the Big Ten - Illinois and Minnesota. This week there  are six games that fit the bill - line movement that doesn't make sense given  one-sided action  on the game - four in college and two more in the NFL.  In the past these reports have generally become more effective as the season  progresses, and that's been the case so far this season. Let's see if the trend  can continue this week:
  
  Maryland (+6.5) at NC State (Saturday, Nov. 7, 1 pm) - Seven out of 10 bettors have been on NC  State here, yet the line opened at 7.5 and has moved through the key number of  7 to the current level of 6.5. That movement is surprising given the action, so  it indicates that Maryland is worth a look here. Neither team is playing  particularly well - NC State has lost four in a row and Maryland has dropped  three straight. The difference between the two is that Maryland is coming off a  bye week,so they have had more time to get ready for this one. That could be  enough to give the Terps and edge here - they have won three straight against  the Wolfpack already.
  
  Texas A&M (-3) at Colorado (Saturday, Nov. 7, 1:30 pm) - Eight of  ten bets have been on the Aggies, yet the line opened at 4.5 and has moved to  the most key number of three. That means that we should be doing something  uncomfortable - looking at the Buffs. Colorado has won just twice this year -  not in the last two weeks - and aside from their win over Kansas has shown  absolutely no progress under coach Dan Hawkins. His seat has to be getting very  hot. A&M has won two in a row but had lost three before that. I have to  admit that I don't see why Colorado would stand out here, but line movements  like this that include the number three are particularly compelling.
  
  Houston (-1) at Tulsa (Saturday, Nov. 7, 7:30 pm) - This one is  extremely interesting. Houston has had almost unanimous support - 91 percent of  bets. Despite that, the line has dropped from the key number of three down to  one. It normally takes a lot for a book to move a line off the key number of  three, so you could hypothesize that there has been some very big bets made on  Tulsa here. That certainly makes them interesting. Houston has lost just once,  and that was five weeks ago. Tulsa has dropped three straight. Houston is  clearly the better team, but they came out of a real shootout last week that  they won in dramatic fashion, so they could be set up for a letdown.
  
  Oklahoma (-4) at Nebraska (Saturday, Nov. 7, 8 pm) - Despite the  struggles that Oklahoma has had this year they are drawing an overwhelming  amount of the support here - 85 percent of the bets have been on the Sooners.  Given the one-sided nature of the play it's eye-opening that the line has moved  from the opening number of six to the current four. That means we should be  looking at Nebraska. Both teams are coming off of wins last week. Oklahoma has  won three of four and is playing reasonably well considering their injury woes.  The Huskers needed that win last week after two straight rough losses. It  wouldn't immediately seem like Nebraska is a team to trust here, but then the  public certainly doesn't have a good grasp on either team this year - they have  both gone under seven of eight times this season
  
  Carolina Panthers (-13.5) at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, Nov. 8, 4:05 pm) - This one doesn't precisely fit the criteria, but it is two interesting to  ignore. Two-thirds of the bets have been on New Orleans, yet the line has moved  through the key number of 14 from the opening 14.5 to 13.5. This is a very  large line by NFL standards, but New Orleans is undefeated, playing exciting  football, and getting lots of media attention for it. That makes them a public  team right now. Given that, the line movement is a good sign that smart money  is doubting that even the potent Saints can overcome a line this big. That  makes Carolina interesting here.
  
  Tennessee Titans (+4) at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, Nov. 8, 4:15 pm) -  Seventy percent of bets have been on the Niners, yet the line has dropped from  6.5 to four. That means we should be looking at the Titans. The Titans finally  got their first win behind a competent game from Vince Young and a brilliant  running performance from Chris Johnson. The Niners have dropped three in a row  after a good start. Given the short term trajectories of the teams you could  see how smart money could be drawn to the Titans - especially because we still  haven't seen enough to know if we can trust Alex Smith this time around.
  
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