Doc's Friday Public Action Report 
by Trevor Whenham - 9/18/2009


Time for another edition of the Public Action  Report, where we look for line movements that don't make sense. Things have been slow to get going so far with  the report, but that's the same every year. The more football that is played,  the better the current information that books and smart money bettors have, and  the more meaningful line moves that go against the public are. This week we  have our first four NFL games of the season to look at, as well as a whopping  seven college games. That's a lot of work to do, so let's get at it:
  
  Boise  State (-7) at Fresno  State (Friday, Sept. 18, 9 p.m.) - More than 70 percent of bets have  come in on the Broncos, yet this game opened at 7.5 and dropped to the key  number of seven. With two potentially effective offenses that's a significant  drop to the key number of seven. The Broncos have dominated this series  recently, but they are coming off a ridiculously easy win that could have them  feeling just a bit too invincible. The Bulldogs are, according to the line  move, worth a look.
  
  Northern Illinois (+11.5) at Purdue (Saturday, Sept. 19, 12 p.m.) -  Seven out of 10 bets have been on Purdue, yet the line has dropped a full point from  the opening 12.5. Purdue gets the support here based on name, but they aren't  particularly strong this year, and Northern Illinois was feisty in an easy  cover against Wisconsin earlier this season. The Huskies are worthy of  consideration.
  
  Utah (+5) at Oregon (Saturday, Sept. 19, 3:30 p.m.) - Utah has, not  surprisingly, drawn 72 percent of bets, yet the line has climbed from 4.5 to 5.  That would suggest that some heavy monetary action is on Oregon. One possible  explanation is that Utah likely comes into this game without the services of  stud running back Matt Asiata. Oregon will also be eager to prove themselves in  their second shot at a ranked non-BCS team this year. that makes them worth a  look.
  
  SMU (-6) at Washington State (Saturday, Sept. 19, 5 p.m.) - On my list  of games that really don't need to be played this one would rank highly.  Neither game has shown much of anything in recent years. SMU is drawing the  bulk of the action after displaying signs of progress under June Jones this  year, including a an upset win at UAB last weekend. Despite that, the line has  made a significant drop from the key number of seven. That would indicate that,  for some reason, Washington State is worth a look.
  
  Miami of Ohio (+16.5) at Western Michigan (Saturday, Sept. 19, 7 p.m.) -  The RedHawks would seem to be worth a look here - 82 percent of bets have been  on Western Michigan, but the line has dropped, so books are looking for more  Western Michigan action for some reason. To be honest, I am at a loss to  explain why. Miami has been outscored 90-0 in their two games this year, and  have obviously looked as bad as a team can look.
  
  Florida Atlantic (+20.5) at South Carolina (Saturday, Sept. 19, 7 p.m.) - Nearly 3/4 of bets have been for the eastern USC, but the line has fallen off  the key number of 21. That means that the Owls are worth a look. Rusty Smith,  their QB, is much better than he has played this year, and the Gamecocks aren't  the most motivated team in the world, so this could be the kind of game that  they let up in once they get a lead.
  
  Buffalo (+4.5) at Central Florida (Saturday, Sept. 19, 7:30 p.m.) - The  Bulls have drawn more than 70 percent of the bets, yet the line has climbed  from 4 to 4.5. That would indicate that Central Florida is worth a look. Both  teams are coming off a loss, but UCF comfortably covered a big spread, while  Buffalo was the victim of an ugly blowout at the hands of Pitt.
  
  Houston Texans (+6.5) at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, Sept. 20, 1 p.m.) -  Nearly 85 percent of bets in this game have been on the Titans, yet the line  has dropped off the key number of seven. That shows that the books aren't afraid of taking  more Tennessee action. Houston was truly dismal in their opening game, and the  public clearly noted that, but they are a better team on both sides of the  ball, and the line movement suggests that smart money expects them to show  that.
  
  Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5) at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, Sept. 20, 1 p.m.) - The cheeseheads have drawn 3/4 of the bets, yet the line has dropped from the  key number of 10 to 9.5. That suggests that the Bengals are worth a look. This  line is, in part, an indication of how fickle the public can be. There were  reasonably high hopes coming into the season for the Bengals, yet one bad game,  complete with a comical ending, has seemingly erased them in the public mind.  This line movement would suggest that some prominent minds thinks that that was  premature.
  
  Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Miami Dolphins (Monday, Sept. 21, 8:35 p.m.) - The Colts have drawn 80 percent of the bets, yet the line has dropped to 3.5  to the most key number there is, three. That means that Miami is worth a look. The action here is clearly the  case of the public favoring a public team against one coming off a loss. The  truth, though, is that the Colts have yet to look very strong. They needed a  late stop to win last week, and the loss of Anthony Gonzalez leaves them with  the barest cupboard full of receivers that Peyton Manning has ever seen.
  
  New England Patriots (-3.5) at New York Jets (Sunday, Sept. 20, 1 p.m.) - I left this one for last even though it's out of chronological order because it's easily  the most interesting line movement I have seen in the three years I have done  this report. 72 percent of the bets in this game have been on the Patriots, the  most public of teams, yet the line has dropped a full field goal from 6.5 to  3.5. That means that the books are essentially begging for action on the  Patriots, and that makes the Jets very interesting. New England showed multiple  vulnerabilities last time out, and they face a short week to address them. The  Jets started strong, displaying a new and improved tone and attitude under new  coach Rex Ryan, and they will be fired up to display that for the first time in  front of home fans. Some people have clearly bet some serious money on the prospect of an upset  here.
  
  
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