2010 Kentucky Derby Picks
by Trevor Whenham - 4/30/2010
There can never be enough ways to bet on the Kentucky Derby. It's the greatest single betting event of the year, so the more ways to 'invest' your money, the better. To help you in this pursuit, Bodog has released a impressive number of prop bets to give you different ways to bet and win. Here's a look at some of the more interesting ones and I will offer some Kentucky Derby picks to help fatten your bankroll:
Official mutuel payoff - You can get a price of -130 to bet that the payoff will be ‘over’ $18. When you think about it, that could be pretty appealing. A payoff of $18 means odds of 8/1. There are only two horses – California's Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy - that are below that price, and it could quite certainly stay that way. In other words, if you bet that the payoff will exceed $18 then you are betting that any one of 18 horses will win. It's easy to find reasons to rule out Sidney's Candy of you don't like him, and favorites are far from a lock in the Derby, so this bet could be an attractive way to cover a whole lot of horses at a decent price.
Will attendance exceed the 153,563 of last year? - The price for ‘no,’ which is -180, is lower than I normally like to bet, but it's reasonably attractive here. The weather forecast calls for heavy thunderstorms, and there isn't a particularly compelling field this year, so there are a lot of people who are going to decide that the infield isn't as attractive as it can be. It would be a real surprise to see a big turnout.
Bodog has posted totals for several horses, so you can bet whether they will finish at a position better or worse than the posted finishing spot. Two are interesting:
Jackson Bend ‘under’ 8.5 (‘even’) - I like this horse. He's twice finished second behind Eskendereya, he likes the dirt, he'll be well ridden by Mike Smith, and he runs a patient, stalking style that should work well for him here. I don't know that he'll win, but I do think that he'll be moving forward at the finish, and that he'll be a factor.
Sidney's Candy ‘over’ 6.5 (-105) - I want to like Sidney's Candy, but just don't. There are too many things working against him - he's not used to running with a brisk early pace, he's a front runner who isn't going to be able to get the lead early from the 20th spot, and he's making his debut on dirt here. Things could go very badly for him, and this is a good way to bet that they will.
The ability to bet how two horses will do compared to each other is a very intriguing way to look at the race, and hopefully to make some money. Here are a few of the more interesting:
Backtalk vs. Homeboykris - You can have +120 for Backtalk, and I don't see why you wouldn't jump at that. The only thing that Homeboykris has going for him is that he is partially owned by Joe Torre. He's only run twice this year, and the last time was when he finished second in an allowance race. That was way back on February 27, so his layoff is way beyond ridiculous. His speed figures are pathetic, and he hasn't done anything notable since the middle of his two year old season. He's just not good enough. Backtalk isn't exactly a superstar, but he's bred well (a son of Smarty Jones), he's run far more recently, and his running style is better suited. This is a nice play.
Noble's Promise vs. Sidney's Candy - As I said earlier I just don't believe in Sidney's Candy, so I am looking for way to profit from him getting beat. This could be a good one. I like Noble's Promise, so I really like him at +135. His Arkansas Derby was a disaster, but he's worked well since then. His running style - a mid-pack stalker - is well suited to this race, and he's likely to get the distance. That means he should be moving forward just when I expect Sidney's Candy to be moving in reverse.
Conveyance vs. Devil May Care - You can have +125 on Conveyance, and I like that price a lot. I just don't believe in the filly. Devil May Care has run just one good race, she's coming off a very long layoff, she hasn't run against the boys before, and she's just not good enough for this spot in my eyes. Conveyance is risky because he's a front runner in a race full of front runners, but of all the speedsters I like his chances of holding the lead best.
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