Week 9 NFL Picks and Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 11/4/2010
This week marks the exact halfway point of the 17-week NFL season. To say it has been a strange season would be a real understatement. Teams that were supposed to be very good are lousy, while others that seemed hopeless are sitting in first place. With these Week 9 NFL picks and odds I’ll try to bring some order to the chaos. There are two games that jump out as offering some nice value this week - a huge and unlikely battle that will have a big impact on the top of the AFC West, and an inter-conference contest between public teams.
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Oakland -2.5 vs. Kansas City (Sunday, November 7, 4:15 pm ET) - The Chiefs have been a very good story this year. I’m just not that impressed by their last month, though. They are 2-2 over that stretch, but their wins were just an overtime game against Buffalo, and a win against Jacksonville, while they lost their two road games over that stretch.
Before that their wins came against a lousy San Francisco team, a lousy Cleveland team, and a struggling San Diego team. These guys have benefited as much from their schedule as anything.
Now they find themselves on the road where they aren’t comfortable against an Oakland team that is playing better football than anyone in the league the last two weeks. They have won their last two games by a combined 92-17. They are as confident as a team can be offensively, and disciplined and effective on defense.
Now they get to carry that momentum forward another week against a hated rival in front of a home crowd that will be fired up out of relief because they are finally seeing some decent football after years of endless suffering.
Oakland has solid edges in offensive performance at home against Kansas City on the road, and on the other side of the ball as well. Being able to take the Raiders and be on the right side of the key number of three is an attractive option in my eyes.
Indianapolis +3 at Philadelphia (Sunday, November 7, 4:15 pm ET) - I don’t typically pay a lot of attention to ATS trends, but two jump out when looking at this game - the Colts are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record, and Philadelphia has covered just three times in their last 10 games. Both things point convincingly to the Colts.
Indy has won five of their last six, and in recent weeks they have rounded into solid form and are looking more like the Colts of old. The offense has been clicking along despite injury issues, and the defense is finding its way in recent weeks - Dwight Freeney was particularly impressive last week.
Philadelphia has had issues with cornerbacks and is struggling to find an answer. There is no one more capable of exploiting that than Peyton Manning. Philadelphia has had some strong QB play at times, but it hasn’t been consistent - largely because of the changes between the two players. That inconsistency makes it hard for me to trust the Eagles when the opponents are so stable at the position.
Part of the reason that the NFL odds are what they are is because Indy is coming off a short week while Philly is coming off a bye. I don’t think that that is significant at all. Indy bounces back well from short weeks traditionally, while the benefits of bye weeks are often overstated by the betting public.
We get the Colts and the key number of three, and that’s good enough for me.
Four of five profitable weeks for football picks for Doc’s Sports and we are very excited about this weekend’s picks after a 3-1 NFL weekend last week. Our picks against the NFL Point Spread for this coming weekend are looking very profitable once again. Call us toll-free at 1-866-238-6696 to find out about a free one-week football package from Doc’s Sports or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choice. Check our home page daily for NFL handicapping articles and up-to-the-minute updated odds.
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