College Football Power Rankings: the Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 11/16/2011
The Ferringo 15 college football power rankings is my own unique twist on the obsessive ranking systems that have dominated the sport for nearly a century. The Ferringo 15 is my profit-power rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that I think hold the most value in college football betting at the moment and it is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting.
So just because my No. 1 ranked team goes out an blows out an opponent that doesn’t strengthen their hold on the top slot. If anything, blowouts hurt value because the general betting public will then start to overestimate a team’s ability. However, teams that quietly go about their business grinding out wins and covering spreads will see their stock – and their spot in the Ferringo 15 -- steadily rise as the season progresses.
The Ferringo 15 has been exceptional over the past four years at pinpointing undervalued teams according to their college football odds. If you were to have bet every team in the Ferringo 15 the week that they appear in my college football power rankings then you would have hit over 58 percent of your wagers for a four-year period.
Here is my Week 12 Ferringo 15 college football power rankings. (As always, all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Stanford (9-1) –“He’s cut! The Russian’s cut!” The invincible Stanford money machine suffered its first setback in more than a year’s worth of games (14-1-1 ATS rush), and the question now is how do they bounce back? They are in a letdown spot this week against one of their fiercest rivals, Cal. But I can’t say that the current line (around 18.0) would scare me off the Cardinal.
2. Oklahoma State (7-2) –Now that was impressive. The Cowboys absolutely humiliated Texas Tech on national television last week, 66-6. But that unholy victory may have sucked some of the value out of this squad. This week they are at Iowa State, coming off that peak performance, and with a critical, BCS-determining game at Oklahoma next week for Bedlam. This team needs to show some focus and maturity this week in Ames if they are going to cover a four-touchdown number that is their highest since their game at Kansas (a 70-28 win as a 31-point favorite).
3. Kansas State (7-2) – I truly can’t say I’ve seen any team so habitually and consistently underrated, undervalued and just flat out dismissed as the Wildcats. They are underdogs AGAIN this week heading to Texas. And they aren’t some 2.0 or 3.0-point underdog, they are catching nearly 10 points! K-State has been catching points in eight of the last nine weeks now despite being a Top 20 team for nearly that entire time. They are 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU in those last seven spots as a puppy and have been killing it for moneyline backers.
4. LSU (7-3) – I can’t really knock the Tigers for failing to beat a 42-point line against Western Kentucky last week (they came pretty close, winning 42-9) in what was an obvious letdown spot. They are facing an Ole Miss team this week that is a dead man walking, and the Rebels will be without their starting quarterback and running back. Will LSU coast again this week before next week’s crucial matchup with Arkansas or will the Tigers build some momentum? They have gone 0-3 ATS this year as a favorite of 22 points or more.
5. Louisiana Tech (7-2) – It’s a huge game in the WAC this weekend, as No. 1 Nevada hosts No. 2 Tech. This is actually Louisiana Tech’s fifth road game in six weeks – think about that – while Nevada has gotten to play four of its last five games at home. What the hell is that about? But the Bulldogs have won four straight road games outright and won’t be fazed by a trip to Reno. Tech is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings with Nevada, but they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning record.
6. Clemson (7-2) – This team has faltered ATS in its last two games and it looks like the books have them pegged. Their No. 91 rush defense is an anchor around their necks and they finish their regular season with two games on the road. A win this week at N.C. State wraps up a slot in the ACC title game and then it will be interesting to see what type of focus they have in their rivalry game at South Carolina to end the year.
7. Alabama (7-3) – I know that this is sacrilegious to say, but I am less and less impressed with this team the more I see them. Their defense, admittedly, is legendary. And their running game is very good but not dominating (No. 18 in the nation). Also, when you really look at it, outside of a home win over Arkansas this team really doesn’t have an ultra-impressive resume. They are off the board this week (vs. Georgia Southern), but next week they have one final chance, at Auburn for the Iron Bowl, to convince us that they deserve another crack at LSU.
8. Arkansas State (8-2) –The Wolves blew a 17-0 lead against Lafayette last week but still rallied late in the game to escape with a 30-21 win. They did not beat the number but this week they should walk through patsy Middle Tennessee. Or should they? ASU is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to MTSU and 2-6 ATS in this series. Also, Arkansas is just 4-12 ATS as a road favorite and they need to avoid looking ahead to the season finale against Troy (even though the Trojans have fallen off a cliff this year).
9. Wisconsin (7-2-1) –For as well as this team has played this year – and remember, they are two Hail Mary passes away from being unbeaten – they are still only in second place in their division and could miss the Big Ten title game. Wisconsin needs to win this week at Illinois and then defend its home turf against Penn State next week. The Illini won’t be a walkover this week. Wisconsin is 1-3 ATS in the last four in this series and in the eight meetings since 1999 the average margin of victory when they meet is just 10.9 points, with two of the last three determined by less than a touchdown.
10. Rutgers (7-2-1) –Rutgers caught a huge break this week when Cincinnati quarterback Zach Collaros was injured last weekend and was ruled out for the rest of the season. The Scarlet Knights can actually seize control of first place in the Big East if they can knock off the visiting Bearcats. But they haven’t beaten Cincinnati since 2005 and lost the last two years by 31 and 32 points against them, respectively. That said, the No. 18 defense in the country gets to tee of against someone named Munchie Legaux this week, so it should be a different story.
11. Western Kentucky (8-2) – I said I wouldn’t penalize LSU for failing to cover against Western Kentucky, but I will certainly credit the Hilltoppers for playing the No. 1 team in the country pretty tough in a game that didn’t mean much to them. WKU has had a charmed season and they have covered seven straight games. They should be bet pretty heavily as road favorites against North Texas this week, but UNT is coming off a big win at Troy and the Mean Green are on a 6-2 ATS roll themselves. WKU is 0-4 SU in this series.
12. Michigan (7-3) –I expected this Wolverines team to hit the wall in November, but they continue to play well and are still trending upwards. They scored a nice split on the road against Iowa and Illinois and now are favored over more highly-ranked Nebraska this week. That is usually a big red flag that the lower-ranked team is going to take the cash. Michigan is just 6-23 ATS in its last 29 Big Ten games, but they are 4-2 ATS in league play this year and are showing a nice finishing kick. As long as they aren’t looking ahead to their big game with Ohio State next week the Wolverines could be an intriguing play this weekend.
13. Southern Miss (7-2) – I actually had to drop Southern Miss in these rankings this week. They held off UCF last week in what looks like their final hurdle before a CUSA Championship Game clash with Houston. But over the next two weeks they play UAB and Memphis, the two worst teams in the East Division. What will their motivation be the next two weeks? They will be facing monster spreads – they are 23-point road favorites this week – and I just don’t know if they are up for it.
14.Houston (7-2) – ESPN’s “College Gameday” will be on campus this weekend, making a rare appearance at a “mid-major” venue. Houston has outscored opponents by an average of nearly 32 points per game this year and has won its last five games by an average of 45.2 points per game. However, they haven’t beaten a team with a record better than .500 since a one-point win over Louisiana Tech back on Sept. 17. Houston has won five straight and eight of nine over SMU, but the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the series dating back to 1993.
15. Vanderbilt (7-2) – That is now five straight ATS wins for the Commodores, but obviously the value is evaporating from this group. They are now road favorites in Knoxville this weekend against a Vols program that has won 70 of the last 81 meetings. Vandy can gain bowl eligibility with a win, but they are just 3-8 ATS as a road favorite and 4-13 ATS off a win of 20 points or more.
Others Receiving Votes: Oklahoma (6-3), Georgia (7-3)
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He has banked $3,000 in football profit last since late September and is lining up another big college football weekend. He nailed hisNFL Game of the Month last week and will have a trio of 5-Unit Plays on the card this week. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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