NFL Totals Betting: Week 11 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 11/16/2011
Does three weeks make a trend? If so, than the ‘under’ remains the solid play after 28 of the last 43 NFL games have stayed ‘under’ the total, including 10 of the 16 games last week. Speaking of trends, for the 10th-straight week we came out on the plus side of our top plays on the total line; cashing in on two of three picks. This raised our year-to-date record to 20-10.
The oddsmakers are constantly trying to sharpen the NFL lines; making it tougher and tougher to mine out the value with each passing week of the season. However, the trick is to know where and how to look as there are always a few ‘bad lines’ out there to pounce on. The following are this week’s top three plays for NFL totals betting with odds provided by BetOnline.
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions
Carolina is going through some real growing pains behind quarterback Cam Newton, but the rookie has shown flashes of greatness and has this Panthers’ offense ranked 19th in the league in scoring, which is a vast improvement from last season.
Detroit’s hot start has cooled a bit with three losses in its last four games, but the Lions are still ranked fourth in the league in scoring with an average of 28 points a game. Matthew Stafford does have a fractured finger on his throwing hand, but he is expected to be behind center against Carolina.
The opening line on this game was 49, but it has dropped to 47 possibly due to Stafford’s injury. Most trends still support a high-scoring game with the total going ‘over’ in eight of the Panthers last 12 games as an underdog and in seven of the Lions last 10 games following a straight-up loss.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati has been one of the biggest surprises this season with a 6-3 record behind rookie quarterback Andy Dalton. He could be tested this week with lingering injuries to two of his favorite targets; rookie wide receiver A.J. Green and tight end Jermaine Gresham. The Bengals can still rely on a defense that is ranked fifth in the NFL in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 18.2 points a game.
Speaking of defense, Baltimore’s remains one of the best in the league across the board. It is ranked sixth against the pass, fourth against the run, and third in total yards allowed. Most importantly, it is only giving-up an average of 16.9 points a game, which is third-best in the NFL.
The line on this game has ticked down a bit to 40.5 after opening at 41, but it still remains high enough. The total in this series has stayed ‘under’ in the last four meetings in Baltimore and in the last four games overall.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins
Dallas is starting to gain some momentum after pinning 44 points on Buffalo last week for its second straight win. On the season, the Cowboys’ offense is averaging 24.8 points a game, but with wide receiver Miles Austin already out of the lineup and running backs’ Felix Jones and DeMarco Murray listed as questionable, some of its punch may be missing this Sunday.
Washington’s surprising 3-1 start is just a distant memory after dropping its fifth-straight game last week. Over the past three weeks, the Redskins’ offense has produced a grand total of 20 points. It has not scored more than 20 points in any single game since Week 2 against Arizona.
The line for this game opened at 42 and has dropped slightly to 41.5. This is still a healthy number in light of the recent trends in this series. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the last six meetings overall and in four of the last five games played in Washington.
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