NFL Totals Betting: Week 12 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 11/25/2011
Before last week’s games, 28 of the previous 43 NFL games stayed ‘under’ the total. Week 11 finally brought a bit of normalcy to the total line with six games going ‘over,’ seven games staying ‘under,’ and one game ending in a ‘push’. Another trend that fell last week was our 10-week winning streak on the total line with a 1-2 record on our top plays. Our year-to-date record still remains healthy at 21-12.
The oddsmakers continue to sharpen the NFL lines each week, but that does not mean there is not some value to be found as long as you know where and how to look. The following are this week’s top three picks for NFL totals betting with the total line provided by BetOnline.
Chicago Bears vs. Oakland Raiders
All eyes will be on Caleb Hanie this week as he takes over for the injured Jay Cutler, who broke a bone in his throwing hand. His last meaningful action for Chicago was in relief of Cutler in last season’s NFC Championship Game.
The Raiders new quarterback, Carson Palmer, continues to become more and more comfortable at the helm after a shaky start. Last week in a win against Minnesota he completed 73.9 percent of his passes for 164 yards and one touchdown.
The total line opened at 42.5 and has dipped to 41.5 as the early money appears to be counting on a low-scoring game. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the Bears last five road games and in five of the Raiders last seven games overall.
Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
The Broncos are just one game back of Oakland in the AFC West at 5-5 through the smoke and mirror magic of Tim Tebow. He has to be one of the most unorthodox quarterbacks to ever play the game, but he is 4-1 as a starter and has the ability to manufacture points when his team needs them the most.
San Diego’s 4-1 start in just a distant memory after five straight losses, but even at its worst, the Chargers’ offense is still averaging 23.6 points a game. They face a Denver defense that is much improved, but still giving-up and average of 24.7 points a game.
The line for this game opened at 44 and has dropped to 42, but that is exactly what we want based on past trends. The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of the last 11 meetings between these two, including the first time they met this season in a 29-24 San Diego victory that went ‘over’ the 47-point line.
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
The Giants remain one of the hardest teams to figure out this season in terms of wins and losses, but they traditionally do a good job at bouncing back after a bad loss. Last week’s 17-10 debacle against Philadelphia sets the stage for Eli Manning and the New York offense to come up big on Monday night.
New Orleans appears to finally be in playoff form after a couple of bumps in the road earlier this season. It has won three of its last four games and is ranked second in the NFL in scoring with an average of 31.3 points a game.
The total line opened at 52 but has slid slightly downward, which is the right direction for this prime-time showdown. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of New York’s last five Monday night games and in five of New Orleans last seven games on Monday night. The last time they met in the Superdome was in 2009 with the Saints coming out on top, 48-27.
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