NFL Totals Betting: Week 14 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 12/7/2011
The total line has now balanced itself out for three straight weeks in the NFL, with eight games going ‘over’ the total last week, seven staying ‘under,’ and one game ending in a ‘push’. Unfortunately, our current downturn continued for a third-straight week as well with a 1-2 record on our top plays. Our year-to-date record through 13 weeks of the NFL regular season now stands at 23-16 for these free NFL picks.
Despite the fact that the oddsmakers have made the lines razor-sharp, there is always some value to be found in the NFL totals betting numbers as long as you know where and how to look. The following are this week’s top three NFL picks on the total line with the NFL odds provided by BetOnline.
Sunday, December 11
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets
The Chiefs lost their starting quarterback Matt Cassel in Week 10 with a broken hand and have managed to score a combined total of 22 points in their last three games. The defense has stepped up in the last two weeks by holding Pittsburgh to 13 points and Chicago to just three points.
New York rolled over Buffalo and Washington the past two weeks by scoring a combined 62 points, but could only manage a combined 29 points in losses to New England and Denver in Weeks 10 and 11. The Jets’ defense remains the team’s strength and is ranked seventh in the NFL in total yards allowed.
The total line opened at 37 for this game as has dipped slightly to 36.5. Weather should not be a factor in this game with clear conditions and moderate temperatures, but some of the past scoring trends for both teams may. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the Chiefs last five road games and in their last seven games overall. The total has also stayed ‘under’ in five of the Jets last seven games as a favorite of 3.5 points or more.
The Prediction: UNDER
Buffalo Bills vs. San Diego Chargers
Buffalo’s early season success has proved to be just a fluke with five-straight losses in which its defense has given-up an average of 31.4 points a game. The offense has shown some signs of life the past two weeks with an average of 20.5 points a game.
San Diego resurrected its season from the ashes with a 38-14 victory over Jacksonville this past Sunday night in probably Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ offense best performance of the season. The win kept the team’s slim AFC West title hopes alive with a 5-7 record on the year.
The line in this matchup opened at 47 and has held steady throughout the week. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of the Bills last seven road games and in seven of their last eight games as underdogs. The total has also gone ‘over’ in four of the Chargers last five games following a SU win and in 10 of their last 14 games following an ATS win.
The Prediction: OVER
Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers
The Raiders gave up 34 points to Miami this past Sunday in their first loss in the last four games. They are currently tied with the upstart Denver Broncos at 7-5 for the lead in the AFC West. Oakland’s defense is now ranked 27th in the NFL in points allowed as they are giving up an average of 25.7 points a game.
Green Bay needed a last-second field goal against the Giants to keep its perfect season intact. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense is now ranked first in the NFL in scoring with an average of 35 points a game, but their defense is ranked 31st in the league in total yards allowed and giving-up 21.8 points a game.
The total line opened at 55 but has dropped to 52.5 with some early money on the ‘under’. It is December in Green Bay, but the tundra will not be frozen just yet with a forecasted high of 35 degrees for Sunday’s game. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the Raiders last five games overall and in five of the Packers last six home games.
The Prediction: OVER
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