NFL Totals Betting: Week 16 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 12/22/2011
For the second week in a row the total line slightly favored the ‘over,’ with nine games going ‘over’ the total, six games staying ‘under,’ and one game ending in a ‘push’ in Week 15 of the NFL season. Christmas came early with a perfect 3-0 record on last week’s top free sports picks, bringing our year-to-date record for our best bets on the total line to 27-17-1.
The oddsmakers continue to carve-out a fine edge on some already razor-sharp lines, but there are always ways to create your own edge as long as you know where and how to look. The following are this week’s top three ‘over/under’ plays for NFL totals betting with the lines provided by BetOnline.
Saturday, Dec. 24
New York Giants vs. New York Jets
The Giants painted themselves into a corner in the NFC East race with last week’s 23-10 loss to Washington. Now they desperately need a win coming into this week’s game. Look for a big effort from Eli Manning, who has a knack for finding ways to generate points in big games.
The Jets three-game winning streak came to a crashing halt last Sunday in a 45-19 beatdown at the hands of Philadelphia. They, too, are in desperate need of a win to keep their own playoff hopes alive. Despite last week’s lapse, the Jets’ offense is ranked seventh in the league in scoring with an average of 24.7 points a game.
The total line for this city championship opened at 47 points and it has dipped slighty downward to 46.5. Despite being late December in North Jersey the weather should not be a factor on Saturday afternoon. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of the Giants last 13 games as road underdogs. It has also gone ‘over’ in five of the Jets last seven games as home favorites.
Game Prediction: OVER
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Despite a late-season coaching change, not much is different with a Jacksonville team that is ranked 28th in the NFL in scoring with an average of 14.8 points a game. The Jaguars have only scored more than 17 points once in their last nine games, so it is little wonder that the total has stayed ‘under’ in 10 of their 14 games this season.
The Titans, at 7-7 on the year, continue to battle for a spot in the postseason primarily around a defense that is holding opponents to an average of 19.9 points a game. Tennessee’s offense is ranked 24th in the league in scoring with, ironically enough, 19.9 points a game. The total has also stayed ‘under’ in 10 of its 14 games this year.
The total line opened at 40 points and has held steady all week long. Saturday’s weather forecast for Nashville is calling for a slight chance of showers and highs in the 40s, which should have little impact on this game. The total has stayed ‘under’ in the Jaguars last four games against the AFC South and in four of the Titans last five games against the division. The total has also stayed ‘under’ in the last four meetings between the two.
Game Prediction: UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
The left-for-dead Eagles are still alive in the NFC East title race at 6-8 because neither the Giants nor Cowboys want to take control of the division. Since Michael Vick’s return to the starting lineup two weeks ago, the offense has scored a total of 71 points.
Dallas snapped a two-game skid with a 31-15 romp over Tampa last Saturday. Scoring points has not been an issue for the 8-6 Cowboys as they put-up 34 against the Giants the week before and are averaging 24.9 points a game.
The total opened at 50.5 points and remains there as of the mid-week lines. The total has gone ‘over’ in 10 of Philadelphia’s last 13 games on the road and in five of its last six games following a SU win. The total has gone ‘over’ in 12 of the Cowboys last 16 home games and in 10 of their last 14 games as home favorites.
Game Prediction: OVER
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