NFL Totals Betting: Week 7 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/19/2011
Defense stepped up to the plate last week in the NFL as 10 of the 13 games stayed ‘under’ the total. This was in sharp contrast to the previous week when nine of the 13 games went ‘over’ the total. Fortunately, we have been able to stay ahead of the curve all season long as for the sixth-straight week we were correct on two-of-three of our top predictions for NFL totals betting, bringing our year-to-date record to 12-6.
The bye weeks continue and with just 13 games on the NFL schedule it gets a bit tougher to mine out the value in the NFL odds, but there are always a few gems to be found. The following are this week’s top three plays on the ‘total line’ as provided by BetOnline.
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
Atlanta has had a few false starts this season, but finally appears to be returning to the form of the team that won 13 games last season. Its offense has put up 30 points or more in road games against Philadelphia and Seattle and its defense is giving up an average of 24.5 points a game.
Detroit is coming off a tough 25-19 loss at home to San Francisco, but has scored an average of 36 points in its other two home games this season. Overall, this offense is ranked fourth in the league in scoring with an average of 29.7 points a game.
The total line for this game opened at 48.5 but has dropped to 47, which plays right into our favor. These two dome teams are no strangers to putting points up on the board as the total has gone ‘over’ in 11 of the Falcons last 18 games overall and in 13 of the Lions last 19 games.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
It has been six years since a team has won back-to-back Super Bowls, but so far the Packers look unstoppable in their quest for a another world title. Aaron Rodgers has this offense firing on all cylinders with an average of 325.2 passing yards and 32.8 points a game.
Minnesota has turned the reins over to rookie quarterback Christian Ponder for this game after another poor performance by Donovan McNabb. Ponder will rely heavily on Adrian Peterson’s ability to rack-up yards on the ground against a Green Bay defense that is ranked fifth against the run.
The opening line for this game was 47.5 and is also moving in the right direction. Rodgers is primed for another huge game, especially in a dome as the total has gone ‘over’ in eight of the last 11 meetings in Minnesota. It has actually gone ‘over’ in five of the last six meetings overall.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Kansas City appears to be back on track with two straight victories after a 0-3 start in which it was outscored 109-27. The Chiefs managed to put up 50 combined points in those two wins, but that was against Minnesota at home and Indianapolis on the road.
Carson Palmer is the new quarterback for Oakland, but it remains to be seen if or how much he might play in this game. Right now the team is preparing for Kyle Boller to be the starter against the Chiefs after Jason Campbell went down with a broken collarbone.
The 42-point opening line for this game has remained fairly steady despite the addition to Palmer to the Raiders’ lineup. This does bear watching if he is named the starter, but if anything it should drive the number up a tick which would play in our favor. This series has been a grind in recent seasons with the total staying ‘under’ in 10 of the last 12 meetings overall and in five of the last six games played in Oakland.
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