NFL Totals Betting: Week 8 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/26/2011
The back-and-forth nature of the results with the ‘total’ line finally evened themselves out in Week 7 of the NFL season with six of the 13 games going ‘over’ the total and seven staying ‘under’. For the seventh-straight week we have been able to stay ahead of the curve with the correct call on two-of-three of our top plays. This brings our year-to-date record to 14-7.
Once again there are just 13 games on the NFL schedule as the bye weeks continue, making it a bit tougher to find the diamonds in the rough. The good news is there are always a few gems to be found. The following are this week’s top three plays on the ‘total line’ as provided by BetOnline.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers
Last week Minnesota decided to take an early look into the future by handing the reins to the offense over to rookie quarterback Christian Ponder. In his first NFL start, he threw for 318 yards and two touchdowns against a Green Bay defense that is ranked 31st against the pass. This week could be a bit different against the Panthers’ 12th ranked pass defense.
Another rookie, QB Cam Newton, has been lighting things up on the stats page for Carolina, but the team is still 2-5 straight-up and averaging less than 24 points a game.
The total line for this game opened at 47, according to NFL odds, and has been climbing all week in anticipation of a Ponder-Newton shootout, which is just what we want. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the Vikings last seven road games and in eight of the Panthers last nine games as a favorite. It has also stayed ‘under’ in five of the last six meetings between the two.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Do not look now, but Cincinnati is 4-2 on the year and just a half a game out of first in the AFC North. It is getting it done with rookie quarterback Andy Dalton, who has led his team to three straight wins while averaging 26.7 points a game.
Seattle’s 6-3 loss to Cleveland last week has to be one of the low-points in offensive futility this season, but in its previous two games the Seahawks put up 28 points on Atlanta at home and 36 points on the N.Y. Giants on the road.
The line on this game opened at 38.5 and has dipped slightly to 38, which is the direction we want to see. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the Bengals last six games overall and in six of the Seahawks last eight home games.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas is easily the most exciting 3-3 team in the league. With the exception of last week’s 34-7 romp over St. Louis, all of its games have been decided by four points or less. The Cowboys may have found a running game to take some of the pressure off Tony Romo after rookie running back DeMarco Murray set a single-game team record for rushing with 253 yards against the Rams.
Philadelphia comes off its bye looking to turn things around after a dismal 2-4 start. Despite having a turnover ratio of -8, the Eagles’ offense is still ranked third in the NFL overall and averaging 24.2 points a game. One of the big problems has been a porous defense that is giving-up an average of 24.1 points a game.
The line opened at 51 and is currently sitting at 50.5, which is the right direction for this game. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the Cowboys last nine road games and in 13 of the Eagles last 19 games overall. It has also gone ‘over’ in two of the last three meetings between the two.
The Prediction: OVER
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