NFL Totals Betting: Week 9 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 11/2/2011
Defense was back in vogue in Week 8 of the NFL regular season with nine of the 13 games staying ‘under’ the total. Our current winning streak remained intact as for the eighth week in a row we had the winning play in two of our top three picks, bringing our year-to-date record up to 16-8.
As the season progresses, the oddsmakers continue to further sharpen the NFL lines. While this makes it a bit tougher to mine out the value, if you dig deep enough there are always a few gems to be found. The following are this week’s top three plays for NFL totals betting with totals provided by BetOnline.
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Cleveland sets itself up as the definitive team for the ‘under’ play with an offense that is ranked 28th in scoring with an average of 15.3 points a game and a defense that is ranked eighth in points allowed, giving up an average of 20 points a game.
Houston has the perception of being an offensive juggernaut, but extremely porous on defense, which helps to inflate its total lines. This season, the Texans’ defense is equally responsible for the strong 5-3 start; it’s ranked third overall and fifth in points allowed by giving-up just 18.1 points a game.
The total line for this game opened at 41 points and is holding steady across the board. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the Browns last six games on the road and in the Texans last four home games. It has also stayed ‘under’ in the last five games between the two.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
The Buccaneers’ offense has been hit-or-miss this season, putting-up 26 points against the Saints the first time they met this season after managing just three points against San Francisco the week before. Overall, it’s ranked 24th in the league in scoring with an average of 18.7 points per game.
The New Orleans offense has never really had to struggle to score points in recent memory and this season is no different with an average of 32.5 points a game. The 20 points it scored against Tampa Bay just three weeks ago was its lowest total of the year.
The line opened at 51.5 points and has slid down to 50, but there is still enough of a built-in cushion in this number for this matchup. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 10 of Tampa Bay’s last 13 games against the NFC South and in six of the Saints last seven games in the division. The total has also stayed ‘under’ in the last six meetings between the two.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Over the past decade or so, the Baltimore defense has always received the bulk of the credit for the team’s success, but this season you have to throw some of the accolades for a 5-2 start at an offense that is averaging 26.4 points a game, which is ranked seventh in the NFL.
Pittsburgh is another team that has always prided itself on having a shutdown defense, and this year is no exception. It is not that the Steelers’ offense cannot score points; it is just that in most games a couple of touchdowns is usually enough points to get the win.
The line for this game opened at 42.5 and has move downward to 42 on public perception. The reality is that the total has gone ‘over’ in six of the Ravens last eight games overall and in five of the Steelers last seven games against the AFC North. In this series, the total has gone ‘over’ in eight of the last 12 meetings overall and in six of the last eight games played in Pittsburgh.
Doc’s Sports has been dominating the NFL odds this season en-route to a 19-10-3 record and this NFL handicapper has helped $100 bettors earn nearly $3,000 thus far this season. Doc loves the NFL picks on this weekend’s card and he expects another strong winning weekend. Click Here for packages and pricing info.
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