UFC Fight Night 24 Odds and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 3/25/2011
I normally don’t do previews of the UFC Fight Night cards, but there are a few reasons I am choosing to here -- the card, which will be contested in Seattle at the sadly vacant former home of the Sonics, is particularly interesting, there isn’t another regular UFC event for more than a month, and last weekend’s event went so well for us that I want to keep riding the wave. With all that said, here’s how the main card breaks down for this Saturday’s event (all odds are from Sports Interaction):
Phil Davis (-417) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+260) - A lot of people would argue that we are witnessing a changing of the guard in UFC led by champs like Jones and Velasquez. If that’s the case, then the odds for this one are further fodder for that argument.
Nogueira has been a top light heavyweight for a long time. It’s striking, then, that he’s such a massive underdog against a guy making just his fifth UFC appearance and eighth career fight.
Davis is no normal guy, though -- he’s undefeated and pointed to by many as a serious title contender in the not-so-distant future. Nogueira, meanwhile, lost last time out and needs a win, or at least a top performance, to show that he’s still a factor and not a fading star.
Davis is the more physically imposing fighter at this point, and probably has an edge in most aspects if you evaluate the two head-to-head. Nogueira has excellent jiu jitsu, though. More important, he has a dangerous combination of factors -- he has a chin made of steel, he’s remarkably patient, and he’s wily.
Davis can beat him, but only if he is on his game, and he doesn’t rest on his advantages for even a second.
I think the Brazilian deserves more respect than this price suggests, but ultimately Davis just has too much going for him. No matter what happens, I’m just thrilled that this is the fight we are getting -- it was originally supposed to be Tito Ortiz in Davis’ place, but I just don’t ever need to see Ortiz fight again unless it is on tape from when he was in his prime.
Pick: Phil Davis
Anthony Johnson (-167) vs. Dan Hardy (+120) - If I was going to bet on which fight was going to be fight of the night it would be this one in a landslide. These guys are both warriors who really like making people hurt.
Johnson has a big advantage with his size. The problem he has, though, is that he walks around at well above what he has to weigh in at for this one. How well he handles losing the weight -- without losing stamina -- will determine how this fight will turn out.
Hardy can take a punch, and he can really throw them. Ultimately, though, he’s going to have a problem getting close enough to Johnson to hurt him -- or, more accurately, getting close enough without getting killed. I like Hardy a lot, but not quite enough in this one.
Pick: Anthony Johnson
Amir Sadollah (-263) vs. DaMarques Johnson (+180) - This fight has been cursed. Duane Ludwig was originally lined up to fight Sadollah, but he was injured. James Wilks stepped into Ludwig’s place only to get injured himself. That opened the door for Johnson. Each successive injury also made things easier for Sadollah.
The favorite has a big edge if the fight goes to the ground. On their feet Johnson is decent, but Sadollah is better. If Sadollah loses this one all he can do is look in the mirror.
Pick: Amir Sadollah
Each card I have been investing $500 mythical dollars on the card. We’re profitable overall, but lack consistency. Last week’s card was great for us, though, so we’ll try to keep it going:
$500 parlay - Sadollah and Davis - potential profit of $355.60.
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